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Measuring the NAIRU — A structural VAR approach

  • Hongmei Zhao

    ()

  • Vincent Hogan

    ()

We calculate the NAIRU for the U.S. in a framework where inflation and the unemployment rate can respond to each other. The NAIRU is defined as the component of the actual unemployment rate that is uncorrelated with inflation in the long run. Using a structural VAR approach, the NAIRU and core inflation can be estimated simultaneously. Our estimation results show that the NAIRU falls dramatically at the end of 1990s and the long run vertical Phillips Curve shifts back from 6.8 per cent before 1997 to 4 per cent afterwards.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11459-011-0123-7
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Frontiers of Economics in China.

Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 76-91

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Handle: RePEc:spr:frecch:v:6:y:2011:i:1:p:76-91
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  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  4. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
  5. Dipak Ghosh & Swarna (Bashu) Dutt, . "Nonstationarity and Nonlinearity in the US Unemployment Rate: A Re-examination," Journal for Economic Educators, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and Economic Research Center.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  7. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
  8. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stuart E. Weiner, 1993. "New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 53-69.
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