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Die NAIRU – eine post-keynesianische Interpretation

Author

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  • Eckhard Hein

    (WSI in der Hans Böckler Stiftung)

Abstract

Dem neu-keynesianischen langfristigen Gleichgewichtskonzept einer durch Strukturfaktoren des Arbeitsmarktes, der Lohnverhandlungen und der sozialen Sicherungssysteme bestimmten inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) wird in diesem Beitrag eine post- keynesianische Interpretation der NAIRU gegenübergestellt. In den neu- keynesianischen Modellen müssen wirksame Realkasseneffekte oder symmetrische Reaktionen und Wirkungen der Geldpolitik angenommen werden, damit sich die Güternachfrage langfristig an das mit der NAIRU kompatible Niveau des Güterangebots anpasst. Diese Annahmen sind für eine Geldwirtschaft unhaltbar, in der Geld über Gläubiger-Schuldner- Kontrakte entsteht und in der von Zinssatz und Profiterwartungen gesteuerte Investitionen die wesentliche Determinante von Produktion und Beschäftigung sind. In einem post-keynesianischen Modell stellt die NAIRU daher lediglich eine kurzfristige Beschäftigungsgrenze dar, die durch inflationsauslösende Verteilungsansprüche gegeben ist und durch die Geldpolitik erzwungen wird. Liegt die durch die effektive Güternachfrage bestimmte Arbeitslosenquote oberhalb der NAIRU, so existieren kurzfristig keine Anpassungsmechanismen. Langfristig folgt die NAIRU jedoch der tatsächlichen Arbeitslosenquote und wird damit durch die Entwicklung der effektiven Nachfrage bestimmt. Hierfür werden verschiedene Kanäle identifiziert. Es wird zudem gezeigt, dass effektiv koordinierte Lohnverhandlungssysteme sehr viel besser als restriktive Geldpolitiken in der Lage sind, die Inflationsrate bei hoher Beschäftigung zu stabilisieren. Effektiv koordinierte Tarifverhandlungssysteme haben zudem den großen Vorteil, dass sie eine Stabilisierung der Inflationsrate auch bei sinkender Beschäftigung ermöglichen und so ein unmittelbares Abgleiten der Ökonomie in makroökonomisch schädliche Deflationsprozesse verhindern können.

Suggested Citation

  • Eckhard Hein, 2005. "Die NAIRU – eine post-keynesianische Interpretation," Macroeconomics 0501009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Hein & Torsten Niechoj, 2005. "Leitlinien für ein dauerhaftes Wachstum in der EU? Konzept und Wirkung der "Grundzüge der Wirtschaftspolitik"," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 31(1), pages 11-40.
    2. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2004. "Macroeconomic co-ordination as an economic policy concept - opportunities and obstacles in the EMU," Macroeconomics 0408011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Truger, Achim, 2003. "Germany's Poor Economic Performance in the Last Decade: It's the Macroeconomy, not Institutional Sclerosis," WSI Working Papers 118, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    4. Pusch, Toralf, 2007. "Verteilungskampf und geldpolitische Sanktion
      [The struggle over distribution and monetary sanction]
      ," MPRA Paper 15228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten & Achim Truger, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," Macroeconomics 0412008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tangian, Andranik & Seifert, Hartmut, 2006. "Globalization and deregulation : Does flexicurity protect atypically employed?," WSI Working Papers 143, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    7. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    8. Hein, Eckhard & Schulten, Thorsten, 2004. "Unemployment, Wages and Collective Bargaining in the European Union," WSI Working Papers 128, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    9. Seifert, Hartmut & Tangian, Andranik, 2007. "Flexicurity: Reconciling Social Security with Flexibility - Empirical Findings for Europe," WSI Working Papers 154, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    10. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "On the European readiness for flexicurity: Empirical evidence with OECD/HBS methodologies and reform proposals," WSI Working Papers 160, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    11. Tangian, Andranik, 2012. "Statistical test for the mathematical theory of democracy," WSI Working Papers 179, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    12. Tangian, Andranik, 2007. "Flexibility-Flexicurity-Flexinsurance: Response to the European Commission's Green Paper "Modernising Labour Law to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century"," WSI Working Papers 149, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.

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    Keywords

    Unemployment; Keynesian economics;

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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