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Die NAIRU – eine post-keynesianische Interpretation

  • Eckhard Hein

    (WSI in der Hans Böckler Stiftung)

Dem neu-keynesianischen langfristigen Gleichgewichtskonzept einer durch Strukturfaktoren des Arbeitsmarktes, der Lohnverhandlungen und der sozialen Sicherungssysteme bestimmten inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) wird in diesem Beitrag eine post- keynesianische Interpretation der NAIRU gegenübergestellt. In den neu- keynesianischen Modellen müssen wirksame Realkasseneffekte oder symmetrische Reaktionen und Wirkungen der Geldpolitik angenommen werden, damit sich die Güternachfrage langfristig an das mit der NAIRU kompatible Niveau des Güterangebots anpasst. Diese Annahmen sind für eine Geldwirtschaft unhaltbar, in der Geld über Gläubiger-Schuldner- Kontrakte entsteht und in der von Zinssatz und Profiterwartungen gesteuerte Investitionen die wesentliche Determinante von Produktion und Beschäftigung sind. In einem post-keynesianischen Modell stellt die NAIRU daher lediglich eine kurzfristige Beschäftigungsgrenze dar, die durch inflationsauslösende Verteilungsansprüche gegeben ist und durch die Geldpolitik erzwungen wird. Liegt die durch die effektive Güternachfrage bestimmte Arbeitslosenquote oberhalb der NAIRU, so existieren kurzfristig keine Anpassungsmechanismen. Langfristig folgt die NAIRU jedoch der tatsächlichen Arbeitslosenquote und wird damit durch die Entwicklung der effektiven Nachfrage bestimmt. Hierfür werden verschiedene Kanäle identifiziert. Es wird zudem gezeigt, dass effektiv koordinierte Lohnverhandlungssysteme sehr viel besser als restriktive Geldpolitiken in der Lage sind, die Inflationsrate bei hoher Beschäftigung zu stabilisieren. Effektiv koordinierte Tarifverhandlungssysteme haben zudem den großen Vorteil, dass sie eine Stabilisierung der Inflationsrate auch bei sinkender Beschäftigung ermöglichen und so ein unmittelbares Abgleiten der Ökonomie in makroökonomisch schädliche Deflationsprozesse verhindern können.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0501009.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 07 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501009
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 26
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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