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Statistical test for the mathematical theory of democracy

  • Tangian, Andranik
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    In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion.

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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/55861/1/688046673.pdf
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    Paper provided by The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation in its series WSI Working Papers with number 179.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wsidps:179
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    1. Tangian, Andranik, 2009. "Towards computer-aided collective bargaining: Enhancing the trade unions position under flexicurity," WSI Working Papers 165, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    2. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2004. "Macroeconomic co-ordination as an economic policy concept - opportunities and obstacles in the EMU," Macroeconomics 0408011, EconWPA.
    3. Tangian, Andranik, 2009. "Six families of flexicurity indicators developed at the Hans Boeckler Foundation," WSI Working Papers 168, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    4. Hein, Eckhard, 2003. "Die NAIRU: Eine post-keynesianische Interpretation," WSI Working Papers 113, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    5. Hein, Eckhard & Schulten, Thorsten, 2004. "Unemployment, Wages and Collective Bargaining in the European Union," WSI Working Papers 128, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    6. Leiber, Simone, 2009. "Armutsvermeidung im Alter: Handlungsbedarf und Handlungsoptionen," WSI Working Papers 166, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    7. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "On the European readiness for flexicurity: Empirical evidence with OECD/HBS methodologies and reform proposals," WSI Working Papers 160, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    8. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten & Achim Truger, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," Macroeconomics 0412008, EconWPA.
    9. Bothfeld, Silke, 2007. "Labour Market Institutions in Germany : Current Status and Ongoing Reforms," WSI Working Papers 152, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    10. Schulten, Thorsten, 2004. "Foundations and Perspectives of Trade Union Wage Policy in Europe," WSI Working Papers 129, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    11. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "Towards Consistent Principles of Flexicurity," WSI Working Papers 159, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    12. Eckhard Hein, 2004. "Interest rate, debt, distribution and capital accumulation in a post-Kaleckian model," Macroeconomics 0412005, EconWPA.
    13. Tangian, Andranik S., 2004. "Defining the flexicurity index in application to European countries," WSI Working Papers 122, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    14. Tangian, Andranik S., 2005. "Composite indicator of German regional policy and its use for optimizing subsidies to regional labour markets," WSI Working Papers 138, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    15. Bogedan, Claudia & Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Klenner, Christina & Schäfer, Claus, 2009. "Vom Schutzschirm zum Bahnbrecher: Anforderungen an die Arbeitsmarkt- und Beschäftigungspolitik in der Wirtschaftskrise," WSI Working Papers 167, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    16. Seifert, Hartmut, 2004. "Flexibility through working time accounts : reconciling economic efficiency and individual time requirements," WSI Working Papers 130, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    17. Dribbusch, Heiner, 2010. "Tarifkonkurrenz als gewerkschaftspolitische Herausforderung: Ein Beitrag zur Debatte um die Tarifeinheit," WSI Working Papers 172, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    18. Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Seifert, Hartmut, 2009. "Deutsches "Beschäftigungswunder" und flexible Arbeitszeiten," WSI Working Papers 169, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    19. Tangian, Andranik S., 2010. "Representativeness of German parties and trade unions with regard to public opinion," WSI Working Papers 173, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    20. Tangian, Andranik, 2006. "Monitoring flexicurity policies in Europe from three different viewpoints," WSI Working Papers 145, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    21. Tangian, Andranik S., 2004. "Liberal and trade-unionist concepts of flexicurity: Modelling in application to 16 European countries," WSI Working Papers 131, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
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