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Statistical test for the mathematical theory of democracy

  • Tangian, Andranik
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    In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion.

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    Paper provided by Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung in its series WSI Discussion Papers with number 179.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wsidps:179
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    1. Tangian, Andranik, 2006. "Monitoring flexicurity policies in Europe from three different viewpoints," WSI Discussion Papers 145, .
    2. Truger, Achim & Hein, Eckhard, 2004. "Macroeconomic co-ordination as an economic policy concept : opportunities and obstacles in the EMU," WSI Discussion Papers 125, .
    3. Seifert, Hartmut, 2004. "Flexibility through working time accounts : reconciling economic efficiency and individual time requirements," WSI Discussion Papers 130, .
    4. Eckhard Hein, 2007. "Interest Rate, Debt, Distribution And Capital Accumulation In A Post-Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 310-339, 05.
    5. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "On the European readiness for flexicurity: Empirical evidence with OECD/HBS methodologies and reform proposals," WSI Discussion Papers 160, .
    6. Tangian, Andranik S., 2005. "Composite indicator of German regional policy and its use for optimizing subsidies to regional labour markets," WSI Discussion Papers 138, .
    7. Eckhard Hein, 2005. "Die NAIRU – eine post-keynesianische Interpretation," Macroeconomics 0501009, EconWPA.
    8. Tangian, Andranik S., 2004. "Defining the flexicurity index in application to European countries," WSI Discussion Papers 122, .
    9. Tangian, Andranik S., 2010. "Representativeness of German parties and trade unions with regard to public opinion," WSI Discussion Papers 173, .
    10. Hein, Eckhard & Schulten, Thorsten, 2004. "Unemployment, Wages and Collective Bargaining in the European Union," WSI Discussion Papers 128, .
    11. Bogedan, Claudia & Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Klenner, Christina & Schäfer, Claus, 2009. "Vom Schutzschirm zum Bahnbrecher: Anforderungen an die Arbeitsmarkt- und Beschäftigungspolitik in der Wirtschaftskrise," WSI Discussion Papers 167, .
    12. Tangian, Andranik, 2009. "Six families of flexicurity indicators developed at the Hans Boeckler Foundation," WSI Discussion Papers 168, .
    13. Dribbusch, Heiner, 2010. "Tarifkonkurrenz als gewerkschaftspolitische Herausforderung: Ein Beitrag zur Debatte um die Tarifeinheit," WSI Discussion Papers 172, .
    14. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "Towards Consistent Principles of Flexicurity," WSI Discussion Papers 159, .
    15. Bothfeld, Silke, 2007. "Labour Market Institutions in Germany : Current Status and Ongoing Reforms," WSI Discussion Papers 152, .
    16. Leiber, Simone, 2009. "Armutsvermeidung im Alter: Handlungsbedarf und Handlungsoptionen," WSI Discussion Papers 166, .
    17. Schulten, Thorsten, 2004. "Foundations and Perspectives of Trade Union Wage Policy in Europe," WSI Discussion Papers 129, .
    18. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten & Achim Truger, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," Macroeconomics 0412008, EconWPA.
    19. Tangian, Andranik, 2009. "Towards computer-aided collective bargaining: Enhancing the trade unions position under flexicurity," WSI Discussion Papers 165, .
    20. Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Seifert, Hartmut, 2009. "Deutsches "Beschäftigungswunder" und flexible Arbeitszeiten," WSI Discussion Papers 169, .
    21. Tangian, Andranik S., 2004. "Liberal and trade-unionist concepts of flexicurity: Modelling in application to 16 European countries," WSI Discussion Papers 131, .
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