IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Path modeling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis

  • Carlos Serrano-Cinca
  • Y. Fuertes-Callén
  • Begoña Gutiérrez-Nieto
  • B. Cuéllar-Fernández

This paper studies the bankruptcy of USA banks since 2009. It first analyzes the financial symptoms that precede bankruptcy, such as low profitability, insufficient revenue, or low solvency ratios. It also goes into the causes of these symptoms. It poses several hypotheses on causes of failure, such as loans growth (some of them risky), specialization (in this case concentration in real estate), and the pursuit of a turnover-driven strategy neglecting margin. It presents and tests a path modeling to bankruptcy based on structural equations, hypotheses tests and logistic regression. Results show that, five years before the crisis, failed banks had, compared to solvent banks, the following: higher loan growths, higher concentration on real estate loans, higher risk ratios, higher turnover, but lower margins. A relationship is found between symptoms and causes. Failed banks present a significant relationship between the percentage of real estate loans and risk. This relationship is negative in excellent banks, confirming that they allocated less real estate loans with higher quality. Non-failed banks compensated increases in risk by strengthening their core capital.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/78756/1/wp11007.pdf
File Function: wp11007
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers CEB with number 11-007.

as
in new window

Length: 23 p.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/78756
Contact details of provider: Postal:
CP114/03, 42 avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 1050 Bruxelles

Phone: +32 (0)2 650.48.64
Fax: +32 (0)2 650.41.88
Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. West, Robert Craig, 1985. "A factor-analytic approach to bank condition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 253-266, June.
  2. Maurice Peat, 2007. "Factors Affecting the Probability of Bankruptcy: A Managerial Decision Based Approach," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 303-324.
  3. William R. Keeton, 1999. "Does faster loan growth lead to higher loan losses?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 57-75.
  4. Delen, Dursun & Cogdell, Douglas & Kasap, Nihat, 2012. "A comparative analysis of data mining methods in predicting NCAA bowl outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 543-552.
  5. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
  6. Titman, Sheridan & Wessels, Roberto, 1988. " The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, March.
  7. Moshirian, Fariborz, 2011. "The global financial crisis and the evolution of markets, institutions and regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 502-511, March.
  8. Yuliya Demyanyk & Iftekhar Hasan, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Working Paper 0904, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Berger, Allen N. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhou, Mingming, 2009. "The effects of focus versus diversification on bank performance: Evidence from Chinese banks," CEI Working Paper Series 2009-09, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  11. David A. Hensher & Stewart Jones, 2007. "Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy: Optimizing the Performance of the Mixed Logit Model," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 241-264.
  12. Tam, KY, 1991. "Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 429-445.
  13. Dambolena, Ismael G & Khoury, Sarkis J, 1980. " Ratio Stability and Corporate Failure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 1017-26, September.
  14. Ioannidis, Christos & Pasiouras, Fotios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2010. "Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 345-357, October.
  15. Adrian Gepp & Kuldeep Kumar & Sukanto Bhattacharya, 2010. "Business failure prediction using decision trees," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 536-555.
  16. Arnold, Patricia J., 2009. "Global financial crisis: The challenge to accounting research," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 803-809, August.
  17. Molinero, C Mar & Ezzamel, M, 1991. "Multidimensional scaling applied to corporate failure," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 259-274.
  18. Henri C. Dekker & Tom Groot & Martijn Schoute & Eelke Wiersma, 2012. "Determinants of the Use of Value-based Performance Measures for Managerial Performance Evaluation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(9-10), pages 1214-1239, November.
  19. Ooghe, H. & De Prijcker, S., 2006. "Failure processes and causes of company bankruptcy: a typology," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2006-21, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
  20. Karl Beitel, 2000. "Financial cycles and building booms: a supply side account," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 32(12), pages 2113-2132, December.
  21. Premachandra, I.M. & Chen, Yao & Watson, John, 2011. "DEA as a tool for predicting corporate failure and success: A case of bankruptcy assessment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 620-626, December.
  22. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
  23. Robert Faff & Yew-Kee Ho & Weiling Lin & Chee-Meng Yap, 2013. "Diminishing marginal returns from R&D investment: evidence from manufacturing firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 611-622, February.
  24. Bezemer, Dirk J., 2010. "Understanding financial crisis through accounting models," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 676-688, October.
  25. Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A & Caruthers, J Kent, 1973. "The Stability of Financial Patterns in Industrial Organizations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 389-96, May.
  26. Hopwood, Anthony G., 2009. "The economic crisis and accounting: Implications for the research community," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 797-802, August.
  27. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
  28. Cooper, Arnold C. & Gimeno-Gascon, F. Javier & Woo, Carolyn Y., 1994. "Initial human and financial capital as predictors of new venture performance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 371-395, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/78756. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benoit Pauwels)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.