Path modeling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis
This paper studies the bankruptcy of USA banks since 2009. It first analyzes the financial symptoms that precede bankruptcy, such as low profitability, insufficient revenue, or low solvency ratios. It also goes into the causes of these symptoms. It poses several hypotheses on causes of failure, such as loans growth (some of them risky), specialization (in this case concentration in real estate), and the pursuit of a turnover-driven strategy neglecting margin. It presents and tests a path modeling to bankruptcy based on structural equations, hypotheses tests and logistic regression. Results show that, five years before the crisis, failed banks had, compared to solvent banks, the following: higher loan growths, higher concentration on real estate loans, higher risk ratios, higher turnover, but lower margins. A relationship is found between symptoms and causes. Failed banks present a significant relationship between the percentage of real estate loans and risk. This relationship is negative in excellent banks, confirming that they allocated less real estate loans with higher quality. Non-failed banks compensated increases in risk by strengthening their core capital.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2011|
|Publication status:||Published by:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CP114/03, 42 avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 1050 Bruxelles|
Phone: +32 (0)2 650.48.64
Fax: +32 (0)2 650.41.88
Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Moshirian, Fariborz, 2011. "The global financial crisis and the evolution of markets, institutions and regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 502-511, March.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David A. Hensher & Stewart Jones, 2007. "Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy: Optimizing the Performance of the Mixed Logit Model," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 241-264.
- Berger, Allen N. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhou, Mingming, 2010. "The effects of focus versus diversification on bank performance: Evidence from Chinese banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1417-1435, July.
- Berger, Allen N. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhou, Mingming, 2009. "The effects of focus versus diversification on bank performance: Evidence from Chinese banks," CEI Working Paper Series 2009-09, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Berger, Allen N. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhou, Mingming, 2010. "The effects of focus versus diversification on bank performance : Evidence from Chinese banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Henri C. Dekker & Tom Groot & Martijn Schoute & Eelke Wiersma, 2012. "Determinants of the Use of Value-based Performance Measures for Managerial Performance Evaluation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(9-10), pages 1214-1239, November.
- Maurice Peat, 2007. "Factors Affecting the Probability of Bankruptcy: A Managerial Decision Based Approach," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 303-324.
- Maurice Peat, 2003. "Factors Affecting the Probability of Bankruptcy," Working Paper Series 130, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Premachandra, I.M. & Chen, Yao & Watson, John, 2011. "DEA as a tool for predicting corporate failure and success: A case of bankruptcy assessment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 620-626, December.
- Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
- Yuliya Demyanyk & Iftekhar Hasan, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Working Paper 0904, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures : a review of prediction methods," Research Discussion Papers 35/2009, Bank of Finland.
- Karl Beitel, 2000. "Financial cycles and building booms: a supply side account," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 32(12), pages 2113-2132, December.
- Bezemer, Dirk J., 2010. "Understanding financial crisis through accounting models," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 676-688, October.
- Adrian Gepp & Kuldeep Kumar & Sukanto Bhattacharya, 2010. "Business failure prediction using decision trees," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 536-555.
- H. Ooghe & S. De Prijcker, 2006. "Failure process and causes of company bankruptcy: a typology," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/388, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Ooghe, H. & De Prijcker, S., 2006. "Failure processes and causes of company bankruptcy: a typology," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2006-21, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
- Titman, Sheridan & Wessels, Roberto, 1988. " The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, March.
- Ioannidis, Christos & Pasiouras, Fotios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2010. "Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 345-357, October.
- Tam, KY, 1991. "Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 429-445.
- Delen, Dursun & Cogdell, Douglas & Kasap, Nihat, 2012. "A comparative analysis of data mining methods in predicting NCAA bowl outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 543-552.
- Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
- Robert Faff & Yew-Kee Ho & Weiling Lin & Chee-Meng Yap, 2013. "Diminishing marginal returns from R&D investment: evidence from manufacturing firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 611-622, February.
- Molinero, C Mar & Ezzamel, M, 1991. "Multidimensional scaling applied to corporate failure," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 259-274.
- West, Robert Craig, 1985. "A factor-analytic approach to bank condition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 253-266, June.
- Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A & Caruthers, J Kent, 1973. "The Stability of Financial Patterns in Industrial Organizations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 389-396, May.
- Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
- Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
- William R. Keeton, 1999. "Does faster loan growth lead to higher loan losses?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 57-75.
- Dambolena, Ismael G & Khoury, Sarkis J, 1980. " Ratio Stability and Corporate Failure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 1017-1026, September.
- Arnold, Patricia J., 2009. "Global financial crisis: The challenge to accounting research," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 803-809, August.
- Cooper, Arnold C. & Gimeno-Gascon, F. Javier & Woo, Carolyn Y., 1994. "Initial human and financial capital as predictors of new venture performance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 371-395, September.
- Hopwood, Anthony G., 2009. "The economic crisis and accounting: Implications for the research community," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 797-802, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/78756. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benoit Pauwels)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.