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Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy

In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011

  • Adam Gersl
  • Jakub Seidler

Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This article examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital bufferâ€, a macroprudential tool proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.

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This chapter was published in: Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, , chapter Thematic Article 2, pages 112-122, 2011.
This item is provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes with number fsr1011/2.
Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1011/2
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  1. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  2. Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
  3. Frédéric Boissay & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Tomasz Kozluk, 2006. "Is Lending in Central and Eastern Europe Developing Too Fast?," Chapters, in: Financial Development, Integration and Stability, chapter 14 Edward Elgar.
  4. Kraft, Evan & Jankov, Ljubinko, 2005. "Does speed kill? Lending booms and their consequences in Croatia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 105-121, January.
  5. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, 09.
  6. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA.
  7. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
  8. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Inci Ötker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Calza, Alessandro & Gartner, Christine & Sousa, João, 2001. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0055, European Central Bank.
  10. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
  11. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties; Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
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