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Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households

  • Serwa, Dobromił

This research proposes a new method to identify the differing states of the market with respect to lending to households. We use an econometric multi-regime regression model where each regime is associated with a different economic state of the credit market (i.e. a normal regime or a boom regime). The credit market alternates between regimes when some specific variable increases above or falls below the estimated threshold level. A novel method for estimating multi-regime threshold regression models for dynamic panel data is also employed.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 198-208

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:198-208
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

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  1. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 813-843, October.
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  3. Jushan Bai & Chihwa Kao & Serena Ng, 2007. "Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 90, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  4. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
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  8. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties; Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 126-129, August.
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  15. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2012. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," NBER Working Papers 18379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
  17. Virginie Coudert & Cyril Pouvelle, 2009. "Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2009-33, CEPII research center.
  18. Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2007. "Bootstrap-based bias correction for dynamic panels," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1160-1184, April.
  19. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Gary Gorton & Ping He, 2005. "Bank Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 11363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  22. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  23. Backé, Peter & Wójcik, Cezary, 2008. "Credit booms, monetary integration and the new neoclassical synthesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 458-470, March.
  24. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
  25. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
  26. Alan S. Blinder, 1985. "Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures," NBER Working Papers 1619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Alessie, Rob & Hochguertel, Stefan & Weber, Guglielmo, 2001. "Consumer Credit: Evidence from Italian Micro Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 3071, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Perraudin, William R M & Sorensen, Bent E, 1992. "The Credit-Constrained Consumer: An Empirical Study of Demand and Supply in the Loan Market," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 179-92, April.
  29. Matteo Iacoviello, 2006. "Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963-2003," 2006 Meeting Papers 585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  30. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Michal Rubaszek & Dobromil Serwa, 2011. "Determinants of credit to households in a life-cycle model," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 92, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
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