IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-01511104.html

Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: The case of Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Virginie Coudert

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Cyril Pouvelle

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

Strong credit growth rates in transition countries may result from a normal catching-up process in a framework of financial development. However, as elsewhere, they can also pertain to a “credit boom”, paving the way to future “credit crunches”. We try to disentangle these two types of situation for the central and eastern European countries (CEECs) by applying a number of methods. First, we consider the gap between current credit and its longterm trend and we find some signs of credit booms, in several CEECs in 2005-2007. Second, we assess the “normal” growth of credit with regard to fundamentals through econometric estimations. Credit growth is also shown to have been excessive in several countries just before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Coudert & Cyril Pouvelle, 2010. "Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: The case of Central and Eastern European Countries," Post-Print halshs-01511104, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01511104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    2. Samatas, Andreas & Makrominas, Michalis & Moro, Andrea, 2019. "Financial intermediation, capital composition and income stagnation: The case of Europe," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 273-289.
    3. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2015. "Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt," BIS Working Papers 501, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
    5. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 2013/106, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Branimir Jovanovic & Egzona Hani & Ljupka Georgievska, 2017. "Post-crisis credit slowdown in South-East Europe: return to normality?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 733-780, November.
    7. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2020. "Leverage Dynamics and the Burden of Debt," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 347-364, April.
    8. Shalkar Baikulakov, 2019. "An equilibrium level of credits in the economy of Kazakhstan," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2.
    9. Rubaszek, Michał & Serwa, Dobromił, 2014. "Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 572-587.
    10. Egert Juuse & Rainer Kattel, 2014. "Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises: The Case of Estonia," FESSUD studies fstudy20, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    11. Péter Benczúr & István Kónya, 2022. "Convergence to the Centre," Contributions to Economics, in: László Mátyás (ed.), Emerging European Economies after the Pandemic, chapter 0, pages 1-51, Springer.
    12. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2020. "Leverage Dynamics and the Burden of Debt," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 347-364, April.
    13. Serwa, Dobromił, 2013. "Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-208.
    14. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez & Joaquim Lima & Leonardo Marinho, 2015. "Countercyclical Capital Buffers: bayesian estimates and alternatives focusing on credit growth," Working Papers Series 384, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Matos, Paulo Rogério Faustino & Correa, Joaquim, 2017. "What drives the inequality of Brazilian cross-states household credit?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(3), September.
    16. Gonzalez, Rodrigo Barbone & Marinho, Leonardo Sousa Gomes & Lima, Joaquim Ignacio Alves de Vasconcellos e, 2017. "Re-anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: Bayesian estimates and alternatives focusing on credit growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1007-1024.
    17. Ilya Bolotov & Radek Čajka & Kateřina Gajdušková, 2013. "The Economic Balance of the Czech Republic and Slovakia During the Economic Crisis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(4), pages 504-523.
    18. Lahura, Erick & Chang, Giancarlo & Salazar, Oscar, 2013. "Identificación de Episodios de Auge Crediticio: Una propuesta Metodológica con Fundamentos Económicos," Working Papers 2013-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    19. Elena Naumovska & Mihail Petkovski & Iskra Stanceva - Gigov, 2015. "Estimation Of The "Normal" Credit Growth In The Republic Of Macedonia With Regards To The Economic Fundamentals," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 47-56, June.
    20. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    21. Richard Connolly & Christopher A. Hartwell, 2014. "Developments in the Economies of Member States Outside the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52, pages 202-218, November.
    22. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.
    24. Aylin Soydan & Serap Bedir Kara, 2020. "Implications of Capital Flows for Domestic Credit Growth: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 8(4), pages 231-245.
    25. Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Sulla, Olga, 2013. "El crecimiento del crédito en América Latina: ¿Desarrollo financiero o boom crediticio?," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 51-80.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01511104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.