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Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries

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  • Virginie Coudert
  • Cyril Pouvelle

Abstract

Strong credit growth rates in transition countries may result from a normal catching-up process in a framework of financial development. However, as elsewhere, they can also pertain to a “credit boom”, paving the way to future “credit crunches”. We try to disentangle these two types of situation for the central and eastern European countries (CEECs) by applying a number of methods. First, we consider the gap between current credit and its longterm trend and we find some signs of credit booms, in several CEECs in 2005-2007. Second, we assess the “normal” growth of credit with regard to fundamentals through econometric estimations. Credit growth is also shown to have been excessive in several countries just before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Coudert & Cyril Pouvelle, 2009. "Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2009-33, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Connolly & Christopher A. Hartwell, 2014. "Developments in the Economies of Member States Outside the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52, pages 202-218, November.
    2. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:3:a:62115 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lahura, Erick & Chang, Giancarlo & Salazar, Oscar, 2013. "Identificación de Episodios de Auge Crediticio: Una propuesta Metodológica con Fundamentos Económicos," Working Papers 2013-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. Niels-Jakob Harbo Hansen & Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America; Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 13/106, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:kap:empiri:v:44:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9338-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
    8. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.
    9. Deryugina, Elena & Kovalenko, Olga & Pantina, Irina & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Elena Naumovska & Mihail Petkovski & Iskra Stanceva - Gigov, 2015. "Estimation Of The "Normal" Credit Growth In The Republic Of Macedonia With Regards To The Economic Fundamentals," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 47-56, June.
    11. Juselius, Mikael & Drehmann, Mathias, 2016. "Leverage dynamics and the burden of debt," Research Discussion Papers 3/2016, Bank of Finland.
    12. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2015. "Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt," BIS Working Papers 501, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Egert Juuse & Rainer Kattel, 2014. "Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises: The Case of Estonia," FESSUD studies fstudy20, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    14. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:1007-1024 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Serwa, Dobromił, 2013. "Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-208.
    16. Rubaszek, Michał & Serwa, Dobromił, 2014. "Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 572-587.
    17. Branimir Jovanovic & Egzona Hani & Ljupka Georgievska, 2014. "Post-Crisis Credit Slowdown in South-East Europe – Return to Normality?," Working Papers 2014-01, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    18. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez & Joaquim Lima & Leonardo Marinho, 2015. "Countercyclical Capital Buffers: bayesian estimates and alternatives focusing on credit growth," Working Papers Series 384, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Sulla, Olga, 2013. "El crecimiento del crédito en América Latina: ¿Desarrollo financiero o boom crediticio?," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 51-80.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CREDIT BOOM; TRANSITION; FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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