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Is credit growth in central and eastern European countries excessive?

  • Coudert, V.
  • Pouvelle, C.

Annual credit growth rates of around 30% and 50% have been observed in some central, eastern and south-eastern European countries (the Baltic States, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania and Macedonia). Is this strong credit growth likely to result in a credit boom that would be detrimental to the economy? Or can it be explained by a catching-up process that is normal for countries with a low level of fi nancial intermediation at the time of their transition?.

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File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/publications/telechar/bulletin/qsa/qsa13/qsa13etud_5.pdf
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Article provided by Banque de France in its journal Quarterly selection of articles - bulletin de la Banque de France.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 13 (Autumn)
Pages: 63-102

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Handle: RePEc:bfr:quarte:2008:13:05
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  1. Diev, P. & Pouvelle, C., 2008. "Financial stability in the EU new Member States, acceding and candidate countries," Occasional papers 5, Banque de France.
  2. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2001. "Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?," NBER Working Papers 8245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 111-155.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 76-97.
  7. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What we Know, What we Don't and What we Should," CEPR Discussion Papers 3246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Adalid, Ramón & Detken, Carsten, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0732, European Central Bank.
  9. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
  10. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
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