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Is credit growth in central and eastern European countries excessive?

  • Coudert, V.
  • Pouvelle, C.

Annual credit growth rates of around 30% and 50% have been observed in some central, eastern and south-eastern European countries (the Baltic States, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania and Macedonia). Is this strong credit growth likely to result in a credit boom that would be detrimental to the economy? Or can it be explained by a catching-up process that is normal for countries with a low level of fi nancial intermediation at the time of their transition?.

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Article provided by Banque de France in its journal Quarterly selection of articles - bulletin de la Banque de France.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 13 (Autumn)
Pages: 63-102

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Handle: RePEc:bfr:quarte:2008:13:05
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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?," Working Paper Research 53, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," NBER Working Papers 9219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  5. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  6. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Diev, P. & Pouvelle, C., 2008. "Financial stability in the EU new Member States, acceding and candidate countries," Occasional papers 5, Banque de France.
  8. Frédéric Boissay & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Tomasz Kozluk, 2006. "Is Lending in Central and Eastern Europe Developing Too Fast?," Chapters, in: Financial Development, Integration and Stability, chapter 14 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  9. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 76-97.
  10. Adalid, Ramón & Detken, Carsten, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0732, European Central Bank.
  11. Egert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 0687, European Central Bank.
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