Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?
This paper analyzes the equilibrium level of private credit to GDP in 11 Central and Eastern European countries on the basis of a number of dynamic panels containing quarterly data on Central and Eastern European economies, emerging markets and developed OECD countries. In doing so, we propose a unifying framework which includes factors driving both the demand for and the supply of private credit. We emphasize that relying on in-sample panel (i.e. including only transition countries) estimates for transition economies is problematic not only because of the upward bias of the estimated constant and slope coeffi cients due to the initial undershooting and the ensuing steady adjustment toward equilibrium, but also because of the instability of the equations estimated for transition economies. The use of out-of-sample (i.e. excluding transition economies) panels suggests that some of the transition economies might have already come close to equilibrium by 2004, whereas others have private credit-to-GDP ratios which are well below the level the fundamentals would justify.
Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria|
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Landerretche, Oscar & Valdés, Rodrigo, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999.
"Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
- Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004.
"Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, 04.
- Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in T ransition Economies: T aking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA.
- Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003.
"Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties; Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans,"
IMF Working Papers
03/213, International Monetary Fund.
- Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
- Giovanni Favara, 2003. "An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Finance and Growth," IMF Working Papers 03/123, International Monetary Fund.
- Kaddour Hadri, 1999.
"Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data,"
1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
- Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
- Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 1999.
"Finance and the sources of growth,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2057, The World Bank.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- LÃ¡szlÃ³ Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997.
"Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
- Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
- Djankov, Simeon & McLiesh, Caralee & Shleifer, Andrei, 2007.
"Private credit in 129 countries,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 299-329, May.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gergely Kiss & Gábor Vadas, 2005.
"The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission,"
MNB Background Studies (discontinued)
2005/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Gabor Vadas & Gergely Kiss, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," Macroeconomics 0512010, EconWPA.
- Calza, Alessandro & Gartner, Christine & Sousa, João, 2001.
"Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
0055, European Central Bank.
- A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
- Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Inci Ã–tker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005. "Pitfalls in estimating equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 130-143, June.
- Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Ashoka Mody & Abdul Abiad, 2005.
"Financial Reform; What Shakes It? What Shapes It?,"
IMF Economic Issues
35, International Monetary Fund.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
- Christoph Duenwald & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies; The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 05/128, International Monetary Fund.
- Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, João, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 0202, European Central Bank.
- Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2006:i:1:b:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Eller)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.