IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksp/journ2/v2y2015i4p210-221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Leroi RAPUTSOANE

    () (Pretoria, South Africa.)

Abstract

This paper analyses the behaviour of alternative measures of credit extension for countercyclical buffer decisions in South Africa. These measures include the deviation of the ratio of private sector credit extension to gross domestic product from its long term trend, the deviation of the logarithm of private sector credit extension from its long term trend as well as the annual percentage change in private sector credit extension. The cyclical properties of these measures are examined over the economic and the financial cycles. The results show that the deviation of the ratio of private sector credit extension to gross domestic product from its long term trend is countercyclical with the economic cycle. The results further show that the deviation of the logarithm of private sector credit extension from its long term trend is procyclical with both the economic and the financial cycle. The results finally show that the annual percentage change in private sector credit extension generally performs poorly in cyclical terms with both the economic and the financial cycle. Consequently, of the three alternative measures of private sector credit extension considered, the deviation of the logarithm of private sector credit extension from its long term trend could be used as a common reference guide for implementing the countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:2:y:2015:i:4:p:210-221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/TER/article/download/563/620
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/TER/article/view/563
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "External Imbalances and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 18606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited; On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem & Behn, Markus, 2013. "Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?," Working Paper Series 1604, European Central Bank.
    5. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    7. Siregar, Reza Yamora & Lim & C.S. Vincent, 2010. "The Role of Central Banks in Sustaining Economic Recovery and in Achieving Financial Stability," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp74, April.
    8. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2016. "Disaggregated Credit Extension and Financial Distress in South Africa," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 226-240, June.
    9. Julia Giese & Henrik Andersen & Oliver Bush & Christian Castro & Marc Farag & Sujit Kapadia, 2014. "The Credit‐To‐Gdp Gap And Complementary Indicators For Macroprudential Policy: Evidence From The Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 25-47, January.
    10. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Shahram M. Amini & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2012. "Comparison Of Model Averaging Techniques: Assessing Growth Determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 870-876, August.
    12. Mise, Emi & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Newbold, Paul, 2005. "On suboptimality of the Hodrick-Prescott filter at time series endpoints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67, March.
    13. Borgy, V. & Clerc, L. & Renne, J-P., 2009. "Asset-price boom-bust cycles and credit: what is the scope of macro-prudential regulation?," Working papers 263, Banque de France.
    14. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    15. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    16. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    17. Hal R. Varian, 2014. "Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    18. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    19. Shahram Amini & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2011. "Bayesian Model Averaging in R," Working Papers 2011-9, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    20. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    21. Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T. & Vermann, E. Katarina, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Temporal homogeneity between financial stress and the economic cycle," MPRA Paper 91119, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit extension; Countercyclical capital buffers.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:2:y:2015:i:4:p:210-221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bilal KARGI). General contact details of provider: http://www.kspjournals.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.