IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cvv/journ1/v6y2019i1p159-171.html

Bank credit to the private sector: VECM approach for Albania

Author

Listed:
  • Adelajda MATUKA

    (Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, Italy.)

Abstract

This study evaluates the determinants of bank credit to the private sector in Albania from 2000 to 2017 using a Vector Error Correction Model which includes both demand and supply-side factors. We perform Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Phillips-Perron test and Johansen cointegration test to ensure the stationarity and long-run relation between explanatory variables. The results show that credit to the private sector is positively related to economic growth. A higher lending rate will decrease the bank credit to the private sector. Further, the decrease of non-performing loans and domestic government debt will increase the funds available for the private sector. The negative sign of error correction term and the diagnostic tests for autocorrelation, normality and ARCH effects ensure that our model is properly defined.

Suggested Citation

  • Adelajda MATUKA, 2019. "Bank credit to the private sector: VECM approach for Albania," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 159-171, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cvv:journ1:v:6:y:2019:i:1:p:159-171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.econsciences.com/index.php/JEPE/article/view/1894
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.econsciences.com/index.php/JEPE/article/view/1894/1906
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Calza, Alessandro & Gartner, Christine & Sousa, João, 2001. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Working Paper Series 55, European Central Bank.
    3. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1985. "Sterling Bank Lending to UK Industrial and Commercial Companies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 91-118, May.
    4. Chris Jarvis, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of the Pyramid Schemes in Albania," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 1-1.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2010. "Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(1), pages 62-75, March.
    6. George Clarke & Robert Cull & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Susana M. S·nchez, 2003. "Foreign Bank Entry: Experience, Implications for Developing Economies, and Agenda for Further Research," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 18(1), pages 25-59.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    9. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    11. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João & Manrique, Marta, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank.
    12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    13. Peter Howells & Khaled A. Hussein, 1999. "The Demand for Bank Loans and the “State of Trade”," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 441-454, March.
    14. de Haas, Ralph & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2006. "Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1927-1952, July.
    15. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Burcu Aydin, 2008. "Banking Structure and Credit Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/215, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2010. "Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(1), pages 62-75, March.
    2. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, Joao, 2006. "Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-226, May.
    3. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João & Manrique, Marta, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank.
    4. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
    7. Saten Kumar, 2016. "Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 194-215, May.
    8. Shijaku, Gerti & Kalluci, Irini, 2013. "Determinants of bank credit to the private sector: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Athanasenas, Athanasios L., 2010. "Credit, income, and causality: A contemporary co-integration analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 194-205, February.
    10. Hassan, Faiza & Qayyum, Abdul, 2013. "Modelling the Demand for Bank Loans by Private Business Sector in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 55366, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2014.
    11. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, July.
    12. Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    13. Senderski, Marcin, 2011. "Justifiable Thrift or Feverish Animal Spirits: What Stirred the Corporate Credit Crunch in Poland?," MPRA Paper 43674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:pra:mprapa:40579 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sami Alpanda & Uluc Aysun, 2012. "Global Banking and the Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Transmission," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 141-175, September.
    16. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Eugenie N. Garganas & Stephen G. Hall, 2014. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalization: an overreaction to repressed demand?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 139-152, January.
    17. Lim , Jamus Jerome & Minne, Geoffrey, 2014. "Learning from financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6838, The World Bank.
    18. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2015. "Determinants of Bank Lending," Working Papers hal-01158241, HAL.
    19. Sophocles Brissimis & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2009. "The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 146-164, August.
    20. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2005. "Changes in financial structure and asset price substitutability: A test of the bank lending channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 879-904, September.
    21. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cvv:journ1:v:6:y:2019:i:1:p:159-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bilal KARGI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.econsciences.com/index.php/JEPE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.