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Does European Monetary Union make inflation dynamics more uniform?

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  • Stefano IACUS
  • Giuseppe PORRO

Abstract

Using a nonparametric method to characterize Markovian operators, we describe the evolution of the short-run inflation processes among the EMU countries between 1996 and 2012. While a progressive clustering pattern can be outlined in the first half of the period - showing that the monetary union makes price dynamics more homogeneous - starting from 2004 an increase in price volatility makes the clustering pattern unstable, as the analysis of the changing points of the inflation processes confirms.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano IACUS & Giuseppe PORRO, 2013. "Does European Monetary Union make inflation dynamics more uniform?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2013-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margarida Duarte, 2003. "The euro and inflation divergence in Europe," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 89(Sum), pages 53-70.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation dynamics; EMU; Markov process; cluster analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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