IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anc/wpaper/289.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU countries after the Euro

Author

Listed:
  • Giulio PALOMBA

    ([n.a.])

  • Emma SARNO

    ([n.a.])

  • Alberto ZAZZARO

    (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

In this paper we introduce new definitions of pairwise and multivariate similarity between short-run dynamics of inflation rates in terms of equality of forecast functions and show that in the context of invertible ARIMA processes the Autoregressive distance introduced by Piccolo (1990) is a useful measure to evaluate such similarity. Then, we study the similarity of shortrun inflation dynamics across EU-15 area countries during the Euro period. Consistent with studies on inflation differentials and inflation persistence, our findings suggest that after seven years from the launch of the Euro the degree of similarity of short-run inflation dynamics across EU countries is still weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio PALOMBA & Emma SARNO & Alberto ZAZZARO, 2007. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU countries after the Euro," Working Papers 289, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdf/289.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yunus Aksoy & Paul De Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 2014. "Do Asymmetries Matter for European Monetary Policy?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 13, pages 321-353, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Emma SARNO & Alberto ZAZZARO, 2003. "Structural Convergence of Macroeconomic Time Series: Evidence for Inflation Rates in EU Countries," Working Papers 180, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    5. Maharaj, E.A., 1994. "A Significance Test for Classifying ARMA Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/94, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. Levin, Andrew T. & Moessner, Richhild, 2005. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview," Working Paper Series 539, European Central Bank.
    7. Hall, Stephen G & Robertson D & Wickens, M R, 1997. "Measuring Economic Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 131-143, April.
    8. Meese, Richard & Geweke, John, 1984. "A Comparison of Autoregressive Univariate Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, July.
    9. Kirstin Hubrich & Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2000. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600037, EcoMod.
    10. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
    11. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    12. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    13. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    14. Francisco J. MartÎn-âlvarez & Victor J. Cano-FernÂndez & JosÊ J. CÂceres-HernÂndez, 1999. "The introduction of seasonal unit roots and cointegration to test index aggregation optimality: An application to a Spanish farm price index," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 403-414.
    15. Mentz, Markus & Sebastian, Steffen P., 2003. "Inflation convergence after the introduction of the Euro," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Caiado, Jorge & Crato, Nuno & Pena, Daniel, 2006. "A periodogram-based metric for time series classification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2668-2684, June.
    17. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    18. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    19. Mark Holmes, 1998. "Inflation Convergence in the ERM: Evidence for Manufacturing and Services," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16.
    20. Mark Holmes, 2002. "Panel data evidence on inflation convergence in the European Union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 155-158.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabio FIORILLO & Agnese SACCHI, 2010. "I Want to Free-ride. An Opportunistic View on Decentralization Versus Centralization Problem," Working Papers 346, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Elena AMBROSETTI & Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA, 2011. "The Remittances Behaviour of the Second Generation in Europe: Altruism or Self-Interest?," Working Papers 368, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Ugo FRATESI, 2010. "The National and International Effects;of Regional Policy Choices: Agglomeration Economies, Peripherality and Territorial Characteristics," Working Papers 344, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    4. Luca RICCETTI, 2010. "Minimum Tracking Error Volatility," Working Papers 340, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    5. Luca RICCETTI, 2011. "A Copula-GARCH Model for Macro Asset Allocation of a Portfolio with Commodities: an Out-of-Sample Analysis," Working Papers 355, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October.
    2. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit labor cost growth differentials in the Euro area, Germany, and the US: lessons from PANIC and cluster analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200703, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    3. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-Run Divergence?: Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 674, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 269-295, November.
    5. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    6. A M Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 590260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence within Turkey," MPRA Paper 16770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    11. Jan Marc Berk & Job Swank, 2007. "Regional real exchange rates and Phillips curves in monetary unions - Evidence from the US and EMU," DNB Working Papers 147, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Alberto Montagnoli & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2007_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Schäfer, Benjamin, 2016. "Monetary union with sticky prices and direct spillover channels," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 99-118.
    14. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2008. "On the feasibility of a monetary union in the Southern Africa Development Community," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 150-157.
    15. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Regional Inflation Convergence In Turkey," Working Papers 2015/10, Turkish Economic Association.
    16. Stephen Hall & Sérgio Lagoa, 2014. "Inflation and Business Cycle Convergence in the Euro Area: Empirical Analysis Using an Unobserved Component Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 885-908, November.
    17. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment in US Bond Yields: an Empirical Analysis with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 11571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Oliver Grimm & Stefan Ried, 2007. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-028, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    19. Angelos Liontakis & Dimitris Kremmydas, 2013. "Food Inflation in EU: Distribution Analysis and Spatial Effects," Working Papers 2013-3, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    20. Emmanuel Anoruo & Vasudeva N.R. Murthy, 2014. "Testing Nonlinear Inflation Convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro; autoregressive metric; inflation dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deancit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maurizio Mariotti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deancit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.