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Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU countries after the Euro

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Giulio PALOMBA

    ([n.a.])

  • Emma SARNO

    ([n.a.])

  • Alberto ZAZZARO

    ()

    (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

In this paper we introduce new definitions of pairwise and multivariate similarity between short-run dynamics of inflation rates in terms of equality of forecast functions and show that in the context of invertible ARIMA processes the Autoregressive distance introduced by Piccolo (1990) is a useful measure to evaluate such similarity. Then, we study the similarity of shortrun inflation dynamics across EU-15 area countries during the Euro period. Consistent with studies on inflation differentials and inflation persistence, our findings suggest that after seven years from the launch of the Euro the degree of similarity of short-run inflation dynamics across EU countries is still weak.

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File URL: http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdf/289.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Paper provided by Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali in its series Working Papers with number 289.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:289
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Keywords: Euro; autoregressive metric; inflation dynamics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Aksoy, Yunus & De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 2002. "Do asymmetries matter for European monetary policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 443-469, March.
  2. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
  3. Emma SARNO & Alberto ZAZZARO, 2003. "Structural Convergence of Macroeconomic Time Series: Evidence for Inflation Rates in EU Countries," Working Papers 180, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  4. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
  5. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
  6. Maharaj, E.A., 1994. "A Significance Test for Classifying ARMA Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/94, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  7. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
  8. Hall, Stephen G & Robertson D & Wickens, M R, 1997. "Measuring Economic Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 131-143, April.
  9. Meese, Richard & Geweke, John, 1984. "A Comparison of Autoregressive Univariate Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, July.
  10. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
  11. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
  12. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  13. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank.
  14. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
  15. Francisco J. MartÎn-âlvarez & Victor J. Cano-FernÂndez & JosÊ J. CÂceres-HernÂndez, 1999. "The introduction of seasonal unit roots and cointegration to test index aggregation optimality: An application to a Spanish farm price index," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 403-414.
  16. Mentz, Markus & Sebastian, Steffen P., 2003. "Inflation convergence after the introduction of the Euro," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  17. Caiado, Jorge & Crato, Nuno & Pena, Daniel, 2006. "A periodogram-based metric for time series classification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2668-2684, June.
  18. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
  19. Kirstin Hubrich & Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600037, EcoMod.
  20. Mark Holmes, 1998. "Inflation Convergence in the ERM: Evidence for Manufacturing and Services," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16.
  21. Mark Holmes, 2002. "Panel data evidence on inflation convergence in the European Union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 155-158.
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Cited by:

  1. Ugo FRATESI, 2010. "The National and International Effects;of Regional Policy Choices: Agglomeration Economies, Peripherality and Territorial Characteristics," Working Papers 344, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  2. Luca RICCETTI, 2011. "A Copula-GARCH Model for Macro Asset Allocation of a Portfolio with Commodities: an Out-of-Sample Analysis," Working Papers 355, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  3. Luca RICCETTI, 2010. "Minimum Tracking Error Volatility," Working Papers 340, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  4. Fabio FIORILLO & Agnese SACCHI, 2010. "I Want to Free-ride. An Opportunistic View on Decentralization Versus Centralization Problem," Working Papers 346, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  5. Elena AMBROSETTI & Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA, 2011. "The Remittances Behaviour of the Second Generation in Europe: Altruism or Self-Interest?," Working Papers 368, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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