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Structural Convergence of Macroeconomic Time Series: Evidence for Inflation Rates in EU Countries

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Listed:
  • Emma SARNO

    ([n.a.])

  • Alberto ZAZZARO

    () (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a new concept of structural convergence and propose an index of dissimilarity among time series as a measure of global convergence of macroeconomic phenomena. The index is built up from the autoregressive distance estimator. The index has the suitable characteristic of being a continuous measure that allows the evaluation of the overall convergence of several time series by using the information on the mutual convergence of single pairs. In this paper, we apply the index to the series of inflation rates of 13 European Union countries. We find that the convergence of the average level of inflation rates, as required by the Maastricht treaty to enter the monetary union, was only partly accompanied by the convergence in time of inflation dynamics. Moreover, such process of convergence did not concern all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Emma SARNO & Alberto ZAZZARO, 2003. "Structural Convergence of Macroeconomic Time Series: Evidence for Inflation Rates in EU Countries," Working Papers 180, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz, Matthias, 2003. "Price Convergence under EMU? First Estimates," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 143, Royal Economic Society.
    2. Maharaj, E.A., 1994. "A Significance Test for Classifying ARMA Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/94, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
    4. Marcellino, Massimliano, 2004. "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 359-372.
    5. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Meese, Richard & Geweke, John, 1984. "A Comparison of Autoregressive Univariate Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, July.
    7. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Salvador Gil-Pareja, 2004. "Price convergence in the European Union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 39-47.
    8. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: what do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 433, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Innovation Diffusion and the Evolution of Regional Disparities," ERSA conference papers ersa03p327, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Nicola MATTEUCCI & Alessandro STERLACCHINI, 2003. "ICT and Employment Growth in Italian Industries," Working Papers 193, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Stefania BUSSOLETTI & Roberto ESPOSTI, 2004. "Regional Convergence, Structural Funds and the Role of Agricolture in the EU. A Panel-Data Approach," Working Papers 220, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    4. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Renato BALDUCCI, 2005. "Public Expenditure and Economic Growth. A critical extension of Barro's (1990) model," Working Papers 240, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Giulio PALOMBA & Emma SARNO & Alberto ZAZZARO, 2007. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU countries after the Euro," Working Papers 289, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    8. Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October.
    9. Roberto ESPOSTI & Pierpaolo PIERANI, 2005. "Price, Private Demand and Optimal Provision of Public R&D in Italian Agriculture," Working Papers 238, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    10. Marcello MESSORI & Alberto ZAZZARO, 2004. "Monetary profits within the circuit: Ponzi finance oer "mors tua, vita mea"?," Working Papers 200, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    11. Elvio MATTIOLI, 2003. "The measurement of coherence in the evaluation of criteria and its effects or ranking problems illustrated using a multicriteria decision method," Working Papers 199, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    autoregressive metric; convergence; inflation dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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