IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/isegwp/wp212008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business Cycles, Core and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra Ferreira Lopes
  • Álvaro M. Pina

Abstract

We compare Europe with the USA and Canada as regards business cycle synchronization and core-periphery patterns. A long sample (1950-2005) makes it possible to study how these aspects have evolved over time. Results support the economic viability of EMU. Average cyclical correlations among European countries have risen significantly, reaching levels close to, or even higher than, those of North American regions. Applying fuzzy clustering to the analysis of core-periphery issues, we find Europe to actually outperform North America: the core-periphery divide is milder, and peripheral status seems generally less protracted.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Ferreira Lopes & Álvaro M. Pina, 2008. "Business Cycles, Core and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/21, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp212008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://depeco.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wp/wp212008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 4, European Central Bank.
    4. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    5. Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1990. "Central bank flexibility and the drawbacks to currency unification," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-18.
    6. Feldstein, Martin, 2000. "The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 345-354, May.
    7. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-374, August.
    8. Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July.
    9. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    10. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196.
    11. Karras, Georgios, 2003. "How homogenizing are monetary unions?: Evidence from the U.S. states," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-397, December.
    12. Dmitri Boreiko, 2003. "EMU and accession countries: Fuzzy cluster analysis of membership," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 309-325.
    13. Mahvash S Qureshi & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2006. "What is Fuzzy About Clustering in West Africa?," IMF Working Papers 2006/090, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Artis, M.J. & Zhang, W., 2002. "Membership of EMU: A Fuzzy Clustering Analysis of Alternative Criteria," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 54-79.
    15. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
    16. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    17. Pedro Perez & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "Business cycle affiliations in the context of European integration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 199-214.
    18. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Inklaar, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2001. "Is There Really a European Business Cycle? A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 215-220, April.
    20. Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe, 2003. "Regional Perspectives on Dollarization in Canada," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 541-570, August.
    21. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
    22. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity And Co-Movement Of Business Cycles With An Application To The Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2007-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    23. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    24. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    25. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2005. "Regional cyclical asymmetries in an optimal currency area: an analysis using US state data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 373-397, July.
    26. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2006. "Specialisation patterns and the synchronicity of regional employment cycles in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 91-104, November.
    27. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Joseph DeJuan & Marc Tomljanovich, 2005. "Income convergence across Canadian provinces in the 20th century: Almost but not quite there," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 39(3), pages 567-592, September.
    29. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31.
    30. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Measuring coherence of output gaps with an application to the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 217-236, April.
    31. M J Artis & W Zhang, 2001. "Core and Periphery in EMU: A Cluster Analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 6(2), pages 47-58, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luboš Hanus & Lukáš Vácha, 2020. "Growth cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1779-1795, April.
    2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-varying Business Cycles Synchronisation in Europe," MPRA Paper 52925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    4. Hasan Engin Duran, 2013. "Convergence Of Regional Economic Cycles In Turkey," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 152-175, November.
    5. Knobel, A. & Mironov, A., 2015. "Assessment of CIS Countries Readiness for Creation of Currency Union," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 76-101.
    6. Anna Iara, 2016. "Revenue for EMU: A Contribution to the Debate on Fiscal Union," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 62(2), pages 301-331.
    7. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2012. "Business Cycles Association in a Small Monetary Union: The Case of Switzerland," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 9-30, March.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    9. Bekiros Stelios & Nguyen Duc Khuong & Uddin Gazi Salah & Sjö Bo, 2015. "Business cycle (de)synchronization in the aftermath of the global financial crisis: implications for the Euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 609-624, December.
    10. J.-S. Pentecôte & J.-C. Poutineau & F. Rondeau, 2015. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: The Negative Effect of New Trade Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 61-79, February.
    11. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    12. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    13. Igor Velickovski & Aleksandar Stojkov & Ivana Rajkovic, 2017. "DIS Union of the Core and the Periphery," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 159-174.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    2. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    3. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    4. António Caleiro, 2011. "Acerca da importância da sincronização do ciclo económico português no contexto europeu," Economics Working Papers 4_2011, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    5. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2012. "Business Cycles Association in a Small Monetary Union: The Case of Switzerland," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 9-30, March.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    7. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-27.
    8. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    9. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    10. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2013. "Regional Dimensions of the Australian Business Cycle," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 264-281, February.
    11. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    12. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    13. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    14. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, February.
    15. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    16. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    17. Salvador Barrios & Marius Brülhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co‐Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
    18. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2011. "Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC," IMF Working Papers 2011/286, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    20. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; Canada; United States; Monetary Unions; Business Cycles; Fuzzy Clustering.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp212008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vitor Escaria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://aquila.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.