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Membership of EMU: A Fuzzy Clustering Analysis of Alternative Criteria


  • Artis, M.J.

    () (European University Institute and CEPR)

  • Zhang, W.

    (Manchester Metropolitan University)


The paper applies fuzzy clustering techniques to the member countries of the European Union in order to arrive at an identification of preferred monetary union groupings. The statistical criteria employed are those suggested, alternatively, by the traditional Optimal Currency Area theory or the Treaty of Maastricht. Both criteria sets identify well-identified sub-groups, where a distinction can be made between a “core group” and one or more peripheral goups. Despite some differences, the similarity between the groups distinguished by the alternative sets of criteria is quite striking. On the whole this is good news for the sustainability of the current “Euro-zone”.

Suggested Citation

  • Artis, M.J. & Zhang, W., 2002. "Membership of EMU: A Fuzzy Clustering Analysis of Alternative Criteria," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 54-79.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0184

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    4. Knobel, A. & Mironov, A., 2015. "Assessment of CIS Countries Readiness for Creation of Currency Union," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 76-101.
    5. Peter Wilson & Keen Meng Choy, 2007. "Prospects for enhanced exchange rate cooperation in East Asia: some preliminary findings from generalized PPP theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(8), pages 981-995.
    6. Chee-Heong Quah, 2016. "A Diagnostic on the West African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 129-148, March.
    7. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Álvaro Pina, 2011. "Business Cycles, Core, and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 565-592, September.
    8. M.J. Artis, 2003. "Reflections on the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 297-307.
    9. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
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    16. Itir Ozer & Ibrahim Ozkan, 2007. "Optimum filtering for optimum currency areas criteria," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(44), pages 1-18.
    17. Chee-Heong Quah & Patrick M. Crowley, 2012. "China and the Dollar: An Optimum Currency Area View," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(4), pages 391-411.
    18. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2017. "Output gap similarities in Europe: Detecting country groups," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 305, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    19. Chee-Heong Quah, 2016. "Germany versus the United States: Monetary Dominance in the Eurozone," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(2), pages 1-16, April.
    20. Mirdala, Rajmund & Ruščáková, Anna, 2015. "On Origins and Implications of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Tsangarides, Charalambos G. & Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2008. "Monetary Union Membership in West Africa: A Cluster Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1261-1279, July.
    22. Wortmann, Marcus & Stahl, Markus, 2015. "Die MIP-Indikatoren zur Analyse von Kern-Peripherie-Strukturen in der EU," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 258, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    Optimal Currency Area; Maastricht Treaty Criteria; EMU; Fuzzy Clustering;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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