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The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts

Author

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  • Libero Monteforte

    () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Stefano Siviero

    () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

The available empirical evidence suggests that non-negligible differences in economic structures persist among euro area countries. Because of these asymmetries, an area-wide modelling approach is arguably less reliable, from a strictly statistical viewpoint, than a multi-country one. This paper revolves around the following issue: are those (statistically detectable) asymmetries of any practical relevance when it comes to supporting monetary policy decision-making? To answer this question, we compute optimal parameter values of a Taylor-type rule, using two simple area-wide and multi-country models for the three largest economies in the euro area, and compare the corresponding optimized loss functions. The results suggest that the welfare under performance of an area-wide modelling approach is likely to be far from trifling.

Suggested Citation

  • Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_458_02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
    2. Marcin Wolski, 2016. "Welfare-theoretic Optimal Policies in a New-Keynesian Economy with Heterogeneous Regions: Any Role for Financial Integration?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 742-761, May.
    3. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. De Grauwe, Paul & Senegas, Marc-Alexandre, 2006. "Monetary policy design and transmission asymmetry in EMU: Does uncertainty matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 787-808, December.
    5. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.
    6. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: What Role for Regional Information?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 1-28, September.
    7. MONTEFORTE Libero & SIVIERO Stefano, "undated". "Aggregate Vs. Disaggregate Euro-Area Macro-Modelling," EcoMod2003 330700105, EcoMod.
    8. Ramón Adalid & Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Stefano Siviero, 2005. "The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    9. Filippo Altissimo & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2006. "On Robust Monetary Policy," Chapters,in: Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Frank Smets, 2005. "Monetary policy and imperfect knowledge," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 2, pages 2-5.
    11. Paolo Gelain, "undated". "The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule For the European Central Bank," EcoMod2007 23900028, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; aggregation; monetary policy rules;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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