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Optimal Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Cross-Country Heterogeneity

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  • Eric Jondeau

    (University of Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

    (Banque de France and Audencia School of Management)

Abstract

This paper investigates the implications of cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area for the design of optimal monetary policy. We build an optimization-based multicountry model (MCM) describing the euro area in which differences between structural parameters across countries are allowed. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate the MCM and its areawide counterpart (AWM).We then question which model is the most appropriate for monetary policy purposes. Several results emerge. First, using an AWM induces relatively large and significant welfare losses. Second, this is not the use of a rule based on aggregated variables that is costly in terms of welfare, but rather the use of a suboptimal forecasting model. Third, allowing for habit on consumption has important implications for the dynamics of models, but taking into account differences in price indexation has more drastic effects on welfare losses.

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  • Eric Jondeau & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Cross-Country Heterogeneity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 23-72, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:2:a:2
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    Cited by:

    1. Moons, Cindy, 2009. "An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model: losses from UK membership in EMU," Working Papers 2009/23, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    2. Chung-Fu Lai, 2016. "Tariff, Consumption Home Bias and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(8), pages 425-444, August.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2010. "On the precision of Calvo parameter estimates in structural NKPC models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1582-1595, September.
    4. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Tirelli, Patrizio & Acocella, Nicola, 2014. "Trend inflation, the labor market wedge, and the non-vertical Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1022-1035.
    5. Poutineau, Jean-Christophe & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2017. "Global banking and the conduct of macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 306-331.
    6. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.
    7. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2015. "Quelle prise en compte des caractéristiques nationales dans les mesures macroprudentielles en zone euro ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 95-141.
    8. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Tirelli, Patrizio & Acocella, Nicola, 2012. "Inflation targets and endogenous wage markups in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 391-403.
    9. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Tirelli Patrizio & Acocella Nicola, 2010. "Trend inflation, endogenous mark-ups and the non-vertical Phillips curve," wp.comunite 0065, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    10. Imbs, Jean & Jondeau, Eric & Pelgrin, Florian, 2011. "Sectoral Phillips curves and the aggregate Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 328-344.
    11. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: What Role for Regional Information?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 1-28, September.
    12. Jondeau, Eric & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2008. "Testing heterogeneity within the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 192-196, April.
    13. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2017. "A Welfare Analysis of Macroprudential Policy Rules in the Euro Area," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 127(2), pages 191-226.
    14. Marcin Wolski, 2016. "Welfare-theoretic Optimal Policies in a New-Keynesian Economy with Heterogeneous Regions: Any Role for Financial Integration?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 742-761, May.
    15. Pei-Tha Gan, 2014. "The Optimal Economic Uncertainty Index: A Grid Search Application," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 159-182, February.
    16. Verstegen, Loes & Meijdam, Lex, 2016. "The Effectiveness of a Fiscal Transfer Mechanism in a Monetary Union : A DSGE Model for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper 2016-023, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Ivashchenko, S., 2013. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Banks and Endogenous Defaults of Firms," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 27-50.
    18. Carla Soares, 2008. "Impact on Welfare of Country Heterogeneity in a Currency Union," Working Papers w200814, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. Lee, Jim, 2009. "Evaluating monetary policy of the euro area with cross-country heterogeneity: Evidence from a New Keynesian model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 325-343, December.
    20. Poilly, Céline & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2013. "Welfare Implications Of Heterogeneous Labor Markets In A Currency Area," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 294-325, March.
    21. Clerc, Laurent & Dellas, Harris & Loisel, Olivier, 2011. "To be or not to be in monetary union: A synthesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 154-167, March.
    22. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(5), pages 549-595, September.
    23. Cindy Moons, 2013. "Losses from Membership in EMU: An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 59(1), pages 27-61.
    24. Carla Soares, 2008. "Heterogeneity in a Monetary Union and its Impact on Welfare," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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