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The Panel Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle

  • Papell, David H.

Does long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hold over the post-1973 floating exchange rate period? Panel unit root tests provide evidence of PPP that increases with the number of observations. The strengthening of the evidence, however, is highly cyclical. When the dollar appreciates at the end of the sample, the evidence of PPP strengthens and, when it depreciates, the evidence weakens. While these patterns cannot be explained by the specifications that are normally used to model real exchange rates, the strengthening, but not the cyclical pattern, can be explained by a specification that incorporates PPP restricted structural change.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0035
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 447-467

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:2:p:447-467
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Papell, David H., 2002. "The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 51-82, June.
  4. Engel, C., 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-05, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
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  8. Papell, David H. & Theodoridis, Hristos, 1998. "Increasing evidence of purchasing power parity over the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 41-50, February.
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  12. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
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  15. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wu, Shaowen, 2001. "Is Purchasing Power Parity Overvalued?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 804-12, August.
  17. Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August.
  18. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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