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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area

Author

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  • Davor Kunovac

    (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia)

  • Mariarosaria Comunale

    (Bank of Lithuania, Lithuania)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in the euro area as a whole and for four euro area members - Germany, France, Italy and Spain. For that purpose we use Bayesian VARs with identification based on a combination of zero and sign restrictions. Our results emphasize that pass-through in the euro area is not constant over time - it may depend on a composition of economic shocks governing the exchange rate. Regarding the relative importance of individual shocks, it seems that pass-through is the strongest when the exchange rate movement is triggered by (relative) monetary policy shocks and the exchange rate shocks. Our shock-dependent measure of ERPT points to a large but volatile pass-through to import prices and overall very small pass-through to consumer inflation in the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Davor Kunovac & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area," Working Papers 46, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:46
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    Cited by:

    1. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Elena Bobeica & Matteo Ciccarelli & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2019. "The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 848, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.
    4. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    5. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Simola, Heli, 2018. "The pass-through to consumer prices in CIS economies: The role of exchange rates, commodities and other common factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 186-217.
    6. Adam Elbourne & Kan Ji & Sem Duijndam, 2018. "The effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 371, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Corbo, Vesna & Di Casola, Paola, 2018. "Conditional exchange rate pass-through: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 352, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    9. Lorenzo Burlon & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through into euro area inflation. An estimated structural model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1192, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Karol Szafranek & Aleksandra Hałka, 2017. "Determinants of low inflation in an emerging, small open economy. A comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches," NBP Working Papers 267, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    11. Sebastian Edwards & Luis Cabezas, 2021. "Exchange rate pass-through, monetary policy, and real exchange rates - Iceland and the 2008 crisis," Economics wp85, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    12. G. de Walque & T. Lejeune & A. Stevens, 2019. "Exchange rates, prices, monetary policy and competitiveness," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 25-46, September.
    13. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Моделирование Эффекта Переноса Валютного Курса На Цены В России // Modeling The Transfer Effect Of Exchange Rate On Prices In Russia," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(3), pages 136-154.
    14. Goran Jovičić & Davor Kunovac, 2017. "What is Driving Inflation and GDP in a Small European Economy: The Case of Croatia," Working Papers 49, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    15. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    16. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2017. "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers 50, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; import prices; consumer prices; inflation; bayesian vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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