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Measuring the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Domestic Prices: A Cointegrated VAR Analysis

Author

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  • Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh

    () (ESSCA - Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Commerciales d'Angers - ESSCA)

  • Waël Louhichi

    (ESSCA - Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Commerciales d'Angers - ESSCA)

Abstract

This paper measures the pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation within a cointegrated VAR (CVAR) framework. This issue is of particular interest for the euro area (EA) as Member Sates cede their national currencies and no longer have options of using monetary policy to respond to local conditions. In fact, a common exchange rate shock, in the absence of a national monetary policy, may have differential impact on EA countries, leading notably to possible divergence in inflation levels. Using quarterly data for 12 EA covering 1980:1 to 2010:4, we report a large degree of heterogeneity in the rates of pass-through across our sample, especially, between "peripheral" and "core" EA economies. For instance, prices rise by 84% in Portugal following one percent depreciation of exchange rate, while for the German economy the extent of pass-through is not exceeding 0.20%. This outcome would have important implications for the general risk perceived by foreign firms and investors regarding the inflationary environment within each EA country.

Suggested Citation

  • Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Waël Louhichi, 2014. "Measuring the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Domestic Prices: A Cointegrated VAR Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00879270, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00879270
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00879270v3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
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    4. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices in Thailand, 2000-2017," MPRA Paper 87492, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Inflation; Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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