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An Analysis of Hong Kong Export Performance

  • Yin-wong Cheung

    (University of California)

The article examines the Hong Kong export performance. A standard export demand formulation is used as the benchmark. Then, we investigate the effects of real exchange rate volatility, ¡§third¡¨ country competition, domestic wages and costs of imports from China on export volume. The study models the Hong Kong domestic exports and re-exports separately, compares the performance of exports to the rest of the world, the U.S. and Japan, and uses destination-and-export-type specific unit value indexes to construct real exchange rates. It is found that Hong Kong export performance varies across export types and across destinations. In general, Hong Kong exports display mean-reverting dynamics, are positively influenced by foreign income, and are adversely affected by the high value of its currency. The lagged export variable, foreign income, and real exchange rate provide most of the explanatory power. The other variables contribute only marginally in explaining the variability of Hong Kong exports.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 092003.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:092003
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  1. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2005. "An Analysis Of Hong Kong Export Performance," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 323-340, October.
  4. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  5. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
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