The Asymmetric Effects of Argentina’s Fiscal Deficits on the Real Exchange Rate

According to standard theoretical frameworks such as Real Business Cycle (RBC’s) models or new-Keynesian theories, the real exchange rate should appreciate in response to an increase in government spending. However, the empirical literature finds mixed results. We offer an answer to this puzzle by analyzing the impact of the composition of the fiscal deficit. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a government and an external sector, we quantify the differential impact on the real exchange rate generated by an increase in public consumption expenditure, public investment, and tax reduction. We calibrate and simulate the model for Argentina and find that the fiscal deficit originated in tax reduction can improve the real exchange rate. In contrast, one generated by an increase in spending deteriorates the real exchange rate. In particular, this depreciation is more significant when the spending is directed toward public consumption than when used for public investment. We argue that quantifying these different effects on the exchange rate within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework is an essential exercise of political economy for highly dollarized emerging economies that exhibit higher inflation pass-through.