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International trade consequences of climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Rob Dellink
  • Hyunjeong Hwang

    (OECD)

  • Elisa Lanzi
  • Jean Chateau

Abstract

This report provides an analysis of how climate change damages may affect international trade in the coming decades and how international trade can help limit the costs of climate change. It analyses the impacts of climate change on trade considering both direct effects on infrastructure and transport routes and the indirect economic impacts resulting from changes in endowments and production. A qualitative analysis with a literature review is used to present the direct effects of climate change. The indirect impacts of climate change damages on trade are analysed with the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with global coverage and sector-specific international trade flows. By building on the analysis in the OECD (2015) report "The Economic Consequences of Climate Change", the modelling analysis presents a plausible scenario of future socioeconomic developments and climate damages, to shed light on the mechanisms at work in explaining how climate change will affect trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Dellink & Hyunjeong Hwang & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2017. "International trade consequences of climate change," OECD Trade and Environment Working Papers 2017/1, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:traaaa:2017/1-en
    DOI: 10.1787/9f446180-en
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabien Candau & Charles Regnacq & Julie Schlick, 2022. "Climate Change, Comparative Advantage and the Water Capability to Produce Agricultural Goods," Working Papers hal-03671521, HAL.
    2. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2021. "Bracing for the Typhoon: Climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 537-551, May.
    3. Elisabeth Christen & Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Alexander Hudetz & Claudia Kettner-Marx & Ina Meyer & Franz Sinabell, 2021. "Außenhandel und nachhaltige Entwicklung in Österreich. Befunde auf der Grundlage von vorliegenden Quellen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 69290.
    4. Muhammad Zahid Rafique & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Wanjun Xia & Majid Ikram & Hafiz Muhammad Shoaib & Umer Shahzad, 2022. "Does economic complexity matter for environmental sustainability? Using ecological footprint as an indicator," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 4623-4640, April.
    5. Jakob Engel & Deeksha Kokas & Gladys Lopez-Acevedo & Maryla Maliszewska, 2021. "The Distributional Impacts of Trade," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 35552.
    6. François Chantret & Jean Chateau & Rob Dellink & Olivier Durand-Lasserve & Elisa Lanzi, 2020. "Can better technologies avoid all air pollution damages to the global economy?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1463-1480, December.
    7. Alejandra Martínez – Martínez & Silviano Esteve – Pérez & Salvador Gil – Pareja & Rafael Llorca - Vivero, 2023. "In search of factors that explain the impact of climate change on international trade," Working Papers 2310, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    8. Bekkers, Eddy & Yilmaz, Ayse Nihal & Bacchetta, Marc & Ferrero, Mateo & Jhunjhunwala, Kirti & Métivier, Jeanne & Okogu, Bright E. & Ramos, Daniel & Tresa, Enxhi & Xu, Ankai, 2024. "A global framework for climate mitigation policies: A technical contribution to the discussion on carbon pricing and equivalent policies in open economies," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2024-03, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Candau, Fabien & Regnacq, Charles & Schlick, Julie, 2022. "Climate change, comparative advantage and the water capability to produce agricultural goods," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Diana A. Londoño-Pulgarín & Francisco Muñoz-Leiva & Esmeralda Crespo-Almendros, 2020. "Conversion of Residential Heating Systems from Fossil Fuels to Biofuels: A Cross-Cultural Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Londoño-Pulgarin, Diana & Cardona-Montoya, Giovanny & Restrepo, Juan C. & Muñoz-Leiva, Francisco, 2021. "Fossil or bioenergy? Global fuel market trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Mary, Sébastien, 2018. "Does Agricultural (Food) Trade Openness Reduce Child Stunting?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274282, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Santiago Guerrero & Ben Henderson & Hugo Valin & Charlotte Janssens & Petr Havlik & Amanda Palazzo, 2022. "The impacts of agricultural trade and support policy reform on climate change adaptation and environmental performance: A model-based analysis," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 180, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE model; Trade and climate change; Trade and environment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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