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Climate change, geography and trade agreements: A perspective of Asian bilateral trade

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  • Qianxu Liang
  • Lin Shao
  • Zahid Hussain
  • Yufang Chao
  • Haiying Liu
  • Chaonan Wang

Abstract

This study investigates the simultaneous effects of geographic factors, trade agreements, and climate change on bilateral exports in Asian countries. We estimate the correlation with bilateral exports by utilizing a panel data set from 2000 to 2020, employing various econometric techniques, particularly the structural gravity model. Therefore, this study aims to examine the simultaneous or complementary impact of influencing factors on exports and link them with the gross domestic product. Findings demonstrate that geographic factors are crucial for determining bilateral exports in terms of increasing trends. Furthermore, geography plays a crucial role in enhancing the magnitude and probability of bilateral exports between trading partner countries. Moreover, bilateral exports have declined because of the simultaneous impact of geographic factors, climate change, and economic size. Thus, geographic factors and economic size affect marginal exports to varying degrees. This study suggests that the simultaneous increase in economic size, trade agreements, and geographic factors can enhance the bilateral export level and its probability at an above-average rate between trading partner countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Qianxu Liang & Lin Shao & Zahid Hussain & Yufang Chao & Haiying Liu & Chaonan Wang, 2025. "Climate change, geography and trade agreements: A perspective of Asian bilateral trade," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(4), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0320363
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0320363
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 24, pages 267-293, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    3. Rob Dellink & Hyunjeong Hwang & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2017. "International trade consequences of climate change," OECD Trade and Environment Working Papers 2017/1, OECD Publishing.
    4. Naixi Liu & Yu Li & Mingzhe Jiang & Bangfan Liu, 2024. "Trade shocks and trade diversion due to epidemic diseases: Evidence from 110 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(5), pages 1-20, May.
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