IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea11/104526.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change and Agriculture In South Asia: Looking for An Optimal Trade Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Laborde, David

Abstract

This paper aims to study how alternative trade policies will help mitigate the effects of climate change in agriculture in South Asia. We use a modified version of MIRAGE CGE for long term projections and allowing modeling of climate change effects (impact on yield) at a subregional level (163 geographical units at the world level) to simulate the effects of 13 SRES scenarios in 8 different trade policy landscapes. Based on these results, we discuss the ranking of trade policy options based on expected values but also in terms of variance using the theory of decision in uncertainty. Choices between unilateral and regional strategies for the countries of the sub regions are compared. Our results confirm that South Asia will be one of the most adversely affected regions in terms of the impacts of climate change on agricultural yield. Both the overall level of economic activity and trade flows will react to this change (-0.5 percent of real income for the region in average, up to -4 percent for Pakistan). Beyond national real income, we also look at the distributional effects of climate change. Unskilled worker real wages, proxy for poor people income, are largely and generally negatively impacted by climate change. We show that trade policies weakly affect the overall economic impact of climate change but leads to more significant changes for the poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Laborde, David, 2011. "Climate Change and Agriculture In South Asia: Looking for An Optimal Trade Policy," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104526, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:104526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104526
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    2. Ouraich, Ismail & Dudu, Hasan & Tyner, Wallace E. & Cakmak, Erol, 2014. "Could free trade alleviate effects of climate change? A worldwide analysis with emphasis on Morocco and Turkey," WIDER Working Paper Series 100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Maganga, Assa & Malakini, Memory, 2015. "Agrarian Impact of Climate Change in Malawi: A Quantile Ricardian Analysis," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212208, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Trade Policy; Computable General Equilibrium; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Q54; C68; N5; N75; O24; F13; Q11; Q17;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:104526. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.