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Turkey’s accession to the EU: what will the Common Agricultural Policy cost?

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  • Grethe, Harald

Abstract

At the EU Council in December 2004, European heads of governments decided to start EU accession negotiations with Turkey in October 2005. Various recent analyses assess the cost of applying the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU (CAP) to Turkey; most of them without taking into account the specific structure of the agricultural sector in Turkey, which would determine the receipts from EU funds. This paper assesses potential budgetary effects resulting from the application of the CAP to Turkey. The analysis is based on macroeconomic projections, equilibrium modelling of the Turkish agricultural sector, and projections of the future development of the CAP. It is found that total EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could total about € 3.5 billion in 2015 and rise to € 5.4 billion in 2025 due to full phasing in of direct payments and rural development policies. The resulting net transfer under the CAP to Turkey would be about € 1.7 billion in 2015 and could increase to € 2.9 billion in 2025. Such sums take a backseat to projected transfers under the structural policy of the EU and the overall political project of including Turkey in the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Grethe, Harald, 2005. "Turkey’s accession to the EU: what will the Common Agricultural Policy cost?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 54(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97208
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    Cited by:

    1. Eruygur, H.O. & Cakmak, Erol H., 2008. "EU Integration of Turkey: Implications for Turkish Agriculture," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44213, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Gulumser, Aliye Ahu & Baycan Levent, Tuzin & Nijkamp, Peter, 2007. "Changing trends in rural self-employment in Europe," Serie Research Memoranda 0017, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Gülümser, A.A. & Baycan-Levent, T. & Nijkamp, Peter, 2008. "Changing trends in rural self-employment in Europe and Turkey," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    4. Sandor Richter, 2008. "Agricultural Support: Consequences of the Eventual Accession of the Balkan Countries to the Europe Union," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(2), pages 183-191.

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