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Turkey's Accession to the EU: What Will the Common Agricultural Policy Cost?

Listed author(s):
  • Grethe, Harald

At the EU Council in December 2004, European heads of governments will decide on a potential date for the start of EU accession negotiations with Turkey. Various recent analyses assess the cost of applying the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU (CAP) to Turkey without taking into account the specific structure of the agricultural sector in Turkey, which would determine the receipts from EU funds. This paper assesses potential budgetary effects resulting from the application of the CAP to Turkey, if Turkey should accede in 2014. The analysis is based on macroeconomic projections from the literature, equilibrium modelling of the Turkish agricultural sector, and projections of the future development of the CAP. It is found that total EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could total about €3.3 billion in 2014 and rise to €5 billion in 2024 due to full phasing in of direct payments and rural development policies. The resulting net transfer under the CAP to Turkey would be about €1.6 billion in 2014 and could increase to €2.6 billion in 2024. Such sums take a backseat to projected transfers under the structural policy of the EU and the overall political project of including Turkey in the EU. Key Words: Turkey, EU accession, CAP, budgetary effects Im Dezember 2004 wird der Europäische Rat über die Festlegung eines Zeitpunkts zur Aufnahme von Beitrittsverhandlungen mit der Türkei entscheiden. Die Diskussion über die aus der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik der EU (GAP) resultierenden Budgetwirkungen eines EUBeitritts basiert bisher meist auf Schatzungen, die die spezifische Struktur des turkischen Agrarsektors sowie zukunftige Anderungen der GAP bis zu einem Beitritt der Turkei kaum einbeziehen. In diesem Beitrag werden die aus der GAP resultierenden Budgetwirkungen eines potentiellen EU-Beitritts der Türkei im Jahr 2014 auf Grundlage der Literatur entnommener makrookonomischer Projektionen, Abschatzungen zukunftiger Anderungen der GAP sowie einem Gleichgewichtsmodell des turkischen Agrarsektors analysiert. Im Ergebnis ergeben sich EU-Zahlungen an die Türkei im Rahmen der GAP von insgesamt 3,3 Mrd. im Jahr 2014, die nach einer schrittweisen Einfuhrung des vollen Umfangs der GAP im Jahre 2024 etwa 5 Mrd. betragen. Der sich aus der GAP potentiell ergebende Netto-Transfer aus dem EU-Budget an die Türkei betragt 1,6 Mrd. im Jahr 2014 und steigt bis 2024 auf etwa 2,6 Mrd. an. Im Verhaltnis zu den sich voraussichtlich aus der europaischen Strukturpolitik ergebenden Transfers und dem politischen Gesamtvorhaben einer Integration der Turkei sind diese Summen eher unbedeutend. Schlusselworter: Turkei, EU-Beitritt, Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik, budgetwirkungen

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Paper provided by Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 18821.

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Date of creation: 2004
Handle: RePEc:ags:huiawp:18821
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  1. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver & Huettel, Silke, 2003. "Empirische Validierung von Realoptionsmodellen," Working Paper Series 18825, Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics.
  3. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert & Palmer, Ken, 2002. "Bounded Recursive Stochastic Simulation - A Simple and Efficient Method for Pricing Complex American Type Options," Working Paper Series 18823, Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics.
  4. Arbenser, Lawrence, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Inward FDI on Ghana: The Role of Complementary Policies," Working Paper Series 18829, Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics.
  5. Weber, Gerald, 2003. "Internationaler Handel und multifunktionale Landwirtschaft : Ein Agrarsektormodell zur Analyse Politischer Optionen und Entscheidungsunterstutzung," Working Paper Series 18824, Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics.
  6. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  7. Odening, Martin, 2000. "Der Optionswert von Sachinvestitionen - Theoretischer Hintergrund und Bewertungsmethoden," Working Paper Series 18828, Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics.
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