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Modelling Turkish Migration to Germany

  • Sule Akkoyunlu
  • Boriss Siliverstovs

This study develops a time series model of Turkish migration to Germany for the period 1963-2004 using the cointegration technique. A single cointegrating relation between the migration flow variable and the relative income ratio between Germany and Turkey, the unemployment rates in Germany and Turkey, and the trade variable, that captures intensity of bilateral economic cooperation, is found. By including the trade variable in the empirical migration function we investigate whether trade and migration are complements or substitutes: a question on which the theoretical literature does not provide a definite answer. Our results support the former view.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.44399.de/dp595.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 595.

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Length: 16 p.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp595
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  1. Schiff, Maurice, 1996. "South-North migration and trade : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1696, The World Bank.
  2. Razin, A. & Sadka, E., 1992. "International Migration and International Trade," Papers 11-92, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  3. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  4. Schiff, Maurice, 1994. "How trade, aid, and remittances affect international migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1376, The World Bank.
  5. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  7. Markusen, James R., 1983. "Factor movements and commodity trade as complements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 341-356, May.
  8. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  9. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  10. Anthony J. Venables, 1997. "Trade Liberalisation and Factor Mobility: An Overview," CEP Discussion Papers dp0352, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  12. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Panagariya, Arvind & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Factor mobility, trade and welfare : A North-South analysis with economies of scale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 229-245, October.
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