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Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows



This paper analyzes possible incidences of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Ondřej Glazar & Wadim Strielkowski, 2009. "Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows," Working Papers IES 2009/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_15

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Nil Demet Gungor & Aysıt Tansel, 2008. "Brain drain from Turkey: an investigation of students' return intentions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(23), pages 3069-3087.
    2. Konrad Lammers, 2006. "The EU and Turkey—Economic Effects of Turkey’s Full Membership," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 41(5), pages 282-288, September.
    3. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2001. "Eastern Enlargement and EU-Labour-Markets: Perceptions, Challenges and Opportunities," IZA Discussion Papers 256, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Selin Sayek & David D. Selover, 2002. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 206-238, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meltem İNCE YENİLMEZ, 2017. "What Determines Labour Movement from Turkey to Europe? Extent of the Situation and Implications," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25.
    2. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:12:y:2017:i:3:p:31-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:13:y:2017:i:3:p:31-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Milan Palat, 2014. "Integration prospects of Turkey into European Structures and Turkish Immigration to Germany," Border Crossing, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 2014(1403), pages 32-40, October.
    5. repec:aes:amfeco:v:46:y:2017:i:19:p:772 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Wadim Strielkowski & Petr Filipec & Miroslav Štefánik & Karolina Kowalska, 2013. "Outward Labour Migration in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia after the EU Enlargement in 2004," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 042-054, March.
    7. Milan Palat, 2014. "Integration prospects of Turkey into European Structures and Turkish Immigration to Germany," Border Crossing, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 4(1-2), pages 32-40, October.
    8. Karolina Kowalska & Wadim Strielkowski, 2013. "Propensity to Migration in the CEECs: Comparison of Migration Potential in the Czech Republic and Poland," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(3), pages 343-357.
    9. repec:aes:amfeco:v:46:y:2017:i:19:p:757 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Radman Peša, Anita & Brajković, Ana, 2015. "Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013," MPRA Paper 69223, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    11. Anita Radman Peša & Mejra Festić, 2012. "Testing the “EU Announcement Effect” on Stock Market Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in Croatia Between 2000 and 2010," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(4), pages 450-469.
    12. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:4:id:434:p:450-469 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Economy of migration; Turkey; EU Enlargement; panel data; seemingly unrelated regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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