Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows
This paper analyzes possible incidences of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2009|
|Date of revision:||Apr 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague|
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Konrad Lammers, 2006. "The EU and Turkey—Economic Effects of Turkey’s Full Membership," Intereconomics- Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 41(5), pages 282-288, September.
- Nil Demet Gungor & Aysit Tansel, 2006.
"Brain Drain From Turkey: An Investigation of Students’ Return Intentions,"
2006/11, Turkish Economic Association.
- Nil Demet Gungor & Aysıt Tansel, 2008. "Brain drain from Turkey: an investigation of students' return intentions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(23), pages 3069-3087.
- Güngör, Nil Demet & Tansel, Aysit, 2006. "Brain Drain from Turkey: An Investigation of Students' Return Intentions," IZA Discussion Papers 2287, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Nil Demet Gungor & Aysit Tansel, 2007. "Brain Drain from Turkey: An Investigation of Students’ Return Intentions," ERC Working Papers 0701, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2007.
- Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2001. "Eastern Enlargement and EU-Labour-Markets: Perceptions, Challenges and Opportunities," IZA Discussion Papers 256, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Selin Sayek & David D. Selover, 2002. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 206-238, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.