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Four scenarios for the future of the public sector and healthcare

Author

Listed:
  • Frits Bos

    () (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Rudy Douven

    () (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Esther Mot

    () (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

This study presents four long-term scenarios for the public sector and health care in the Netherlands. In the two scenarios that stress the importance of collective provisions (Regional Communities and Strong Europe), the share of government production (public administration, defense and subsidised education) will increase from 10.5% of GDP in 2001 to about 12% in 2040. In the other two scenarios (Transatlantic Market and Global Economy), the government sector will decrease in size to 8% of GDP in 2040. Due to higher growth rates of GDP per capita, the growth of government services per capita is only marginally smaller than in the more collective scenarios. Health care expenditures as a percentage of GDP will increase in all scenarios from 8.7% in 2001 to between 13.3% and 14.6% in 2040. In all scenarios, ageing and progress in medical technology are major driving factors of the growth in health expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Frits Bos & Rudy Douven & Esther Mot, 2004. "Four scenarios for the future of the public sector and healthcare," CPB Document 72, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:72
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Jonsson, Bengt, 2000. "International comparisons of health expenditure: Theory, data and econometric analysis," Handbook of Health Economics,in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 11-53 Elsevier.
    2. Baumol, William J, 1972. "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 150-150, March.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2007. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72.
    4. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Why Have Health Expenditures as a Share fo GDP Risen So Much?," NBER Working Papers 9325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Joseph P. Newhouse, 1992. "Medical Care Costs: How Much Welfare Loss?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 3-21, Summer.
    6. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. David M. Cutler, 1996. "Public Policy for Health Care," NBER Working Papers 5591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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