Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?
We ask whether Poland is at risk of the boom-bust problem that has afflicted economies around the time of euro adoption. Our answer, inevitably, is mixed. On the one hand the fact that Poland is an outlier, credit-growth wise, accentuates the danger of a boom if one believes in mean reversion. Our econometrics indicate that the fall in interest rates that will flow from expectations of euro adoption will further feed that boom. On the other hand the fact that interest rates have already converged part way to euro-area levels (and more extensively than in earlier adopters that experienced a sharp fall in rates and a pronounced credit boom), especially in the case of lending to firms, suggests that this shock may be less intense in Poland. And it is certainly conceivable that the same policies and country characteristics (not always visible to the econometrician) that have restrained credit growth in the past may continue to do so in the future. The broader literature also points to two set of factors, the first of which makes the danger of an unsustainable credit boom more immediate, the second of which makes it more remote. In the first category are the continuing limitations of the supervisory framework and the weakness of the finance minister in the budget-making process. In the second are a record of rigorous prudential supervision and the existence of relatively competitive labor markets.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fagan, Gabriel & Gaspar, Vítor, 2007.
"Adjusting to the euro,"
Working Paper Series
0716, European Central Bank.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Zsolt Darvas & Gyorgy Szapary, 2008.
"Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies,"
IEHAS Discussion Papers
0824, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- Zsolt Darvas & Gy�rgy Szap�ry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," Working Papers 0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
- Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003.
"Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans,"
IMF Working Papers
03/213, International Monetary Fund.
- Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
- Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Egert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006.
"Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?,"
Working Paper Series
0687, European Central Bank.
- Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
- Engelbert Stockhammer & Özlem Onaran, 2006. "National and sectoral factors in wage formation in Central and Eastern Europe," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp100, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Bal�zs �gert & Peter Back� & Tina Zumer, 2007. "Private-Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 201-231, June.
- Jakub Borowski & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2004.
"Designing Poland's Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area,"
EUI-RSCAS Working Papers
10, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
- Jakub Borowski & Michal Brzoza- Brzezina, 2004. "Designing Poland’s Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area," Macroeconomics 0404015, EconWPA.
- Manoj Atolia & Edward F. Buffie, 2006. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization, Durables Consumption, and Stylized Facts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 416, Society for Computational Economics.
- Breuss, Fritz & Fink, Gerhard & Haiss, Peter, 2004. "How well prepared are the New Member States for the European Monetary Union?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 769-791, October.
- Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro, 2006. "Are labour markets in the new member states sufficiently flexible for EMU?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1393-1407, May.
- David VÃ¡vra & Inci Ã–tker & Barry Topf & Zbigniew Polanski, 2007. "Coping with Capital Inflows: Experiences of Selected European Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/190, International Monetary Fund.
- Schardax, Franz & Reininger, Thomas & Summer, Martin, 2001. "The Financial System in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland after a Decade of Transition," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Thomas H. Mondschean & Timothy P. Opiela, 1997. "Banking reform in a transition economy: the case of Poland," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar, pages 16-32.
- Jorge Braga de Macedo, 2007. "Competitiveness and convergence in Portugal," GEE Papers 0004, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação, revised Nov 2007.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.