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Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Steiner, Katharina

Abstract

We ask whether Poland is at risk of the boom-bust problem that has afflicted economies around the time of euro adoption. Our answer, inevitably, is mixed. On the one hand the fact that Poland is an outlier, credit-growth wise, accentuates the danger of a boom if one believes in mean reversion. Our econometrics indicate that the fall in interest rates that will flow from expectations of euro adoption will further feed that boom. On the other hand the fact that interest rates have already converged part way to euro-area levels (and more extensively than in earlier adopters that experienced a sharp fall in rates and a pronounced credit boom), especially in the case of lending to firms, suggests that this shock may be less intense in Poland. And it is certainly conceivable that the same policies and country characteristics (not always visible to the econometrician) that have restrained credit growth in the past may continue to do so in the future. The broader literature also points to two set of factors, the first of which makes the danger of an unsustainable credit boom more immediate, the second of which makes it more remote. In the first category are the continuing limitations of the supervisory framework and the weakness of the finance minister in the budget-making process. In the second are a record of rigorous prudential supervision and the existence of relatively competitive labor markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry & Steiner, Katharina, 2008. "Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Georgy Ganev, 2009. "Costs and Benefits of Euro Adoption in Bulgaria," Working Paper / FINESS 5.3, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
    3. Greetje Everaert & Natasha X Che & Nan Geng & Bertrand Gruss & Gregorio Impavido & Yinqiu Lu & Christian Saborowski & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Li Zeng, 2015. "Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 15/15, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Pascal Jacquinot & Marcin Kolasa, 2014. "Can We Prevent Boom-Bust Cycles During Euro Area Accession?," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 35-69.
    5. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," NBP Working Papers 103, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro; Poland;

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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