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The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus

Author

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  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Marco Ratto
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

In the context of debates about the euro exchange rate's (EXR) impact on Germany's (DE) trade surplus, we estimate a multiregion macroeconomic model (1999–2018) and provide a counterfactual in which we simulate the shocks of the estimated model in an alternative setting with freely floating nominal EXRs. The results suggest a reduction of the DE trade surplus by up to 1.3% of gross domestic product (GDP; around 1/4 of the surplus) during 2010–2015 compared to the data, together with a stronger real effective EXR (REER). The rest of the euro area (REA) net exports are more negative (by up to −0.6% of GDP) in the counterfactual before the EA crisis, but more positive (by up to 0.4% of GDP) in recent years. Overall, the counterfactual DE and REA trade balance and REER trajectories are very similar to the actual paths. Modifying shock processes in the counterfactual would give rise to larger differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Hohberger & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 85-103, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:85-103
    DOI: 10.1111/infi.12359
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Hoffmann, Mathias & Kliem, Martin & Krause, Michael & Moyen, Stéphane & Šauer, Radek, 2021. "Rebalancing the euro area: Is wage adjustment in Germany the answer?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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