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PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model

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  • Alice, Albonico
  • Alessia, Paccagnini
  • Patrizio, Tirelli

Abstract

We build up and estimate a two-region DSGE model of the Euro area, investigating the interactions between the peripheral countries (PIIGS) and the rest of EMU. Our main focus is on the 2008-2009 financial crisis and on the subsequent 2010-sovereign bond crisis. One striking result is that the two crises are characterized by demand shocks in the core Euro area countries, whereas region-specific permanent technology shocks explain most of output growth slowdown in the PIIGS countries. Our results suggest that the capital flows reversals caused important supply-side e¤ects in the Eurozone periphery.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers 331, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 11 Mar 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:331
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:2:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:jmacro:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:53-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2018. "Should the ECB Coordinate EMU Fiscal Policies?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 237-280, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PIIGS; Euro crisis; two-country DSGE; Bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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