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Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area

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  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry
  • Müller, Gernot J.
  • Wolf, Martin

Abstract

During the post-crisis period, economic performance has been highly heterogenous across the euro area. While some economies rebounded quickly after the 2009 output collapse, others are undergoing a protracted further decline as part of an extensive deleveraging process. At the same time, inflation has been subdued throughout the whole of the euro area and intra-euro-area exchange rates have hardly moved. We interpret these facts through the lens of a two-country model of a currency union. We find that deleveraging in one country generates deflationary spillovers which cannot be contained by monetary policy, as it becomes constrained by the zero lower bound. As a result, the real exchange rate response becomes muted, and the output collapse—concentrated in the deleveraging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2016. "Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 42-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:88:y:2016:i:c:p:42-66
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.02.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    2. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Guilherme Bandeira & Evi Pappa & Rana Sajedi & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Low-Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 7-52, June.
    4. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    5. Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers 331, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 11 Mar 2016.
    6. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deleveraging; Currency union; Real exchange rate; Zero lower bound; Deflationary spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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