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When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Andres

    (Universidad de Valencia)

  • Oscar Arce

    (Banca de Espana)

  • Dominik Thaler

    (Banca de Espana)

  • Carlos Thomas

    (Banca de Espana)

Abstract

Inspired by the recent experience in some euro area countries, we analyze the interaction between fiscal consolidation and private deleveraging in a model of a small open economy in a monetary union. The coexistence of long-term private debt and collateral constraints on new loans implies that, following an adverse financial shock, the economy enters a slow private deleveraging process, the duration of which is endogenous to collateral and debt dynamics. In this context, large and/or front-loaded consolidations increase the length and depth of private deleveraging, causing higher relative output losses over the medium run. As a result, such aggressive consolidation strategies entail larger present-value multipliers. Our results thus speak in favor of 'deleveraging-friendly' (smaller/more gradual) consolidations. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Andres & Oscar Arce & Dominik Thaler & Carlos Thomas, 2020. "When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 214-233, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-471
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2020.02.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Manuel Campos & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Pascal Jacquinot & Pablo Burriel & Francesco Caprioli, 2019. "Economic consequences of high public debt and challenges ahead for the euro area," Working Papers o201904, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Maria Malmierca, 2021. "Persistence in the Private Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Evidence from 43 OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8889, CESifo.
    3. Óscar Arce & Iván Kataryniuk & Paloma Marín & Javier J. Pérez, 2020. "Reflexiones sobre el diseño de un Fondo de Recuperación europeo," Occasional Papers 2014, Banco de España.
    4. Cusato Novelli, Antonio & Barcia, Giancarlo, 2021. "Sovereign Risk, Public Investment and the Fiscal Policy Stance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Burriel, Pablo & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Jacquinot, Pascal & Stähler, Nikolai & Schön, Matthias, 2020. "Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models," Working Paper Series 2450, European Central Bank.
    6. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2017. "Time-varying Effects of Public Debt on the Financial and Banking Development in the Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 77325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Júlia Brunet & Susana Párraga, 2021. "Fiscal rebalancing plans in the medium term: the case of the United Kingdom," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2021, pages 1-8.
    8. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Maria Malmierca, 2021. "Credit-to-GDP ratios. Non-linear trends and persistence: Evidence from 44 OECD economies," Working Papers 2021/05, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidations; Long term private debt; Financial shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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