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Deficit reduction: Short-term pain for long-term gain

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  • Clinton, Kevin
  • Kumhof, Michael
  • Laxton, Douglas
  • Mursula, Susanna

Abstract

The paper evaluates the costs and benefits of fiscal consolidation using simulations based on the IMFs global dynamic general equilibrium model GIMF. Over the longer run, well-targeted permanent reductions in budget deficits can lead to a considerable increase in both the growth rate and the level of output. The gains may be enhanced by shifting some of the tax burden from incomes to consumption. In the short-run, credibility plays a crucial role in determining the size of initial output losses. Global current account imbalances would be significantly reduced if budget consolidation was larger in countries with current account deficits.

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  • Clinton, Kevin & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Mursula, Susanna, 2011. "Deficit reduction: Short-term pain for long-term gain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 118-139, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:55:y:2011:i:1:p:118-139
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    Cited by:

    1. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    2. Salvador Barrios & Flavia Coda Moscarola & Francesco Figari & Luca Gandullia, 2020. "Size and distributional pattern of pension-related tax expenditures in European countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(5), pages 1287-1320, October.
    3. Andreyev, M. & Polbin, A., 2019. "Studying the financial accelerator effect in a two-sector DSGE model for an exportoriented economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 12-49.
    4. Alari PaulusBy & Francesco Figari & Holly Sutherland, 2017. "The design of fiscal consolidation measures in the European Union: distributional effects and implications for macro-economic recovery," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 632-654.
    5. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2014. "Fiscal consolidations and public debt in Europe," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(4), pages 614-644, August.
    6. Castro, Gabriela & Maria, José R. & Félix, Ricardo Mourinho & Braz, Cláudia Rodrigues, 2017. "Aging And Fiscal Sustainability In A Small Euro Area Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(7), pages 1673-1705, October.
    7. Jocelyn Boussard & Benoît Campagne, 2017. "Fiscal policy coordination in a monetary union at the zero lower bound," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 65-90.
    8. Javier Andres & Oscar Arce & Dominik Thaler & Carlos Thomas, 2020. "When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 214-233, July.
    9. Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2013. "Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India," IMF Working Papers 2013/127, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Dénes Kucsera & Hanno Lorenz, 2022. "COVID-19 and (gender) inequality in income: the impact of discretionary policy measures in Austria," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & José R. Maria, 2013. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Small Euro-Area Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 1-38, December.
    12. Mikhail Yu. Andreyev & Andrey V. Polbin, 2018. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Indicators in DSGE-models," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 21-33, June.
    13. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2017. "Fiscal consolidation and its cross-country effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-106.
    14. Jocelyn Boussard & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 460, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Francesco Figari & Tine Hufkens & Chrysa Leventi & Andrea Papini & Alberto Tumino, 2022. "Monetary compensation schemes during the COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for household incomes, liquidity constraints and consumption across the EU," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2022-03, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Richard McManus & F Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Fiscal consolidations and distributional effects: which form of fiscal austerity is least harmful?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 317-349.
    17. repec:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2017_num_494_1_10782 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Evangelos Charalambakis & Federica Teppa & Athanasios Tsiortas, 2024. "Consumer participation in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond," Working Papers 807, DNB.
    19. Kalaš Branimir & Andrašić Jelena & Pjanić Miloš, 2016. "Aspect of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from Serbia," The European Journal of Applied Economics, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 21-29, October.
    20. Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Möglichkeiten und Grenzen von makroökonomischen Modellen zur (exante) Evaluierung wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen," Working Papers 05/2013, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    21. Tapsoba, Sampawende J.-A., 2014. "Options and strategies for fiscal consolidation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-237.
    22. Mr. Nicolas End & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba & Mr. G. Terrier & Renaud Duplay, 2015. "Deflation and Public Finances: Evidence from the Historical Records," IMF Working Papers 2015/176, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2012. "Evidence on Fiscal Consolidations and the Evolution of Public Debt in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 4027, CESifo.
    24. Berger, Johannes & Graf, Nikolaus & Strohner, Ludwig & Schuh, Ulrich, 2014. "Auswirkungen von ausgaben- und einnahmenseitigen Konsolidierungen," Research Papers 2, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.

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