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The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium

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  • Schwarzmüller, Tim
  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

We provide a systematic analysis of fiscal consolidation in a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model. Our results show that the choice of the consolidation instrument is very important, not only with respect to the short- and long-run output effects of the different consolidation strategies, but also regarding the welfare effects and the distributional consequences. Moreover, we show that these aspects become even more important if fiscal consolidation has to be conducted at a binding zero lower bound on nominal interest rates because in this case the negative short-run output costs increase. Our comprehensive analysis of the transmission channels of various fiscal consolidation measures shows that in particular the presence of credit-constrained households who cannot smooth consumption has a large impact on the overall output and welfare effects of fiscal consolidation. Further, it turns out to be important whether a fiscal instrument directly affects private production factors negatively as it is the case for consolidation via government investment and taxes on labor and capital. In these cases the short-run output contraction is large and persistent because either the private or the public capital stock decreases. By contrast, for a consolidation via government consumption, transfers or the consumption tax rate, output recovers much faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Schwarzmüller, Tim & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium," Kiel Working Papers 1963, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1963
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    3. Guo, Lingyi & Xu, Wenli & Xu, Kun, 2016. "中国财政政策调整的宏观经济效应——基于消费者异质性的新凯恩斯模型 [The effect of Fiscal Consolidations on Chinese Maroeconomies——Based on The NK Model with Cosummer’s Heterogenicity]," MPRA Paper 69170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lalik, Magdalena, 2017. "The impact of constrained monetary policy on fiscal multipliers on output and inflation," Working Paper Series 2019, European Central Bank.
    5. Sakkas, Stelios & Varthalitis, Petros, 2018. "The (intertemporal) equity-efficiency trade-off of fiscal consolidation," MPRA Paper 90983, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Vybhavi Balasundharam & Olivier Basdevant & Dalmacio Benicio & Andrew Ceber & Yujin Kim & Luca Mazzone & Hoda Selim & Yongzheng Yang, 2023. "Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design," IMF Working Papers 2023/063, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal consolidation; government debt; distortionary taxes; zero lower bound; welfare; monetary-fiscal policy interaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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