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Exit strategies

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Listed author(s):
  • Angeloni, Ignazio
  • Faia, Ester
  • Winkler, Roland

Abstract

We study alternative scenarios for exiting the post-crisis fiscal and monetary accommodation using a macromodel where banks choose their capital structure and are subject to runs. Under a Taylor rule, the post-crisis interest rate hits the zero lower bound (ZLB) and remains there for several years. In that condition, pre-announced and fast fiscal consolidations dominate - based on output and inflation performance and bank stability - alternative strategies incorporating various degrees of gradualism and surprise. We also examine an alternative monetary strategy in which the interest rate does not reach the ZLB; the benefits from fiscal consolidation persist, but are more nuanced.

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Paper provided by Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt in its series SAFE Working Paper Series with number 50.

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Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:50
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Keywords: exit strategies; debt consolidation; fiscal policy; fiscal multipliers; monetary policy; bank runs;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
  • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
  • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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Cited by:

  1. Ademmer, Esther & Dreher, Ferdinand, 2014. "Institutional constraints to political budget cycles in the enlarged EU," Kiel Working Papers 1964, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Schwarzmüller, Tim & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium," Kiel Working Papers 1963, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Kotaro Ishi & Kenji Fujita & Mark R. Stone, 2011. "Should Unconventional Balance Sheet Policies Be Added to the Central Bank toolkit? a Review of the Experience so Far," IMF Working Papers 11/145, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Suh, Hyunduk & Walker, Todd B., 2016. "Taking financial frictions to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-65.
  5. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The Low-Interest-Rate Environment, Global Liquidity Spillovers and Challenges for Monetary Policy Ahead," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(2), pages 313-334, June.
  6. Hilberg, Björn & Hollmayr, Josef, 2011. "Asset prices, collateral and unconventional monetary policy in a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 1373, European Central Bank.
  7. Foerster, Andrew T., 2015. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents׳ expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 191-207.
  8. Jan Vlcek & Scott Roger, 2012. "Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks; Recent Developments and Future Directions," IMF Working Papers 12/21, International Monetary Fund.
  9. repec:kie:kieliw:1964 is not listed on IDEAS

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