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Exit strategies

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  • Angeloni, Ignazio
  • Faia, Ester
  • Winkler, Roland

Abstract

We study alternative scenarios for exiting the post-crisis fiscal and monetary accommodation using a macromodel where banks choose their capital structure and are subject to runs. Under a Taylor rule, the post-crisis interest rate hits the zero lower bound (ZLB) and remains there for several years. In that condition, pre-announced and fast fiscal consolidations dominate - based on output and inflation performance and bank stability - alternative strategies incorporating various degrees of gradualism and surprise. We also examine an alternative monetary strategy in which the interest rate does not reach the ZLB; the benefits from fiscal consolidation persist, but are more nuanced.

Suggested Citation

  • Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Winkler, Roland, 2014. "Exit strategies," SAFE Working Paper Series 50, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:50
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2437326
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    Cited by:

    1. Suh, Hyunduk & Walker, Todd B., 2016. "Taking financial frictions to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-65.
    2. Schwarzmüller, Tim & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium," Kiel Working Papers 1963, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Fang-Fang Tang & Yongsheng Xu, 2021. "Corruption in Organizations: Some General Formulations and (In-)Corruptibility Results," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 49-57, December.
    4. Foerster, Andrew T., 2015. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents׳ expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 191-207.
    5. Kotaro Ishi & Mr. Kenji Fujita & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2011. "Should Unconventional Balance Sheet Policies Be Added to the Central Bank toolkit? a Review of the Experience so Far," IMF Working Papers 2011/145, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The Low-Interest-Rate Environment, Global Liquidity Spillovers and Challenges for Monetary Policy Ahead," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(2), pages 313-334, June.
    7. Hilberg, Björn & Hollmayr, Josef, 2011. "Asset prices, collateral and unconventional monetary policy in a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 1373, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exit strategies; debt consolidation; fiscal policy; fiscal multipliers; monetary policy; bank runs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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