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Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents׳ expectations

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  • Foerster, Andrew T.

Abstract

A central bank may purchase assets during a financial crisis and then exit from those purchases. Agents have rational expectations about financial crises as rare events, the probability the central bank purchases assets, and the exit strategy. Selling off assets quickly produces a double-dip recession while slowly unwinding generates a smooth recovery. Expectations about the exit strategy influence the initial effectiveness of purchases. Increasing the probability of purchases during crises distorts the pre-crisis economy and depends upon the exit strategy. The welfare benefits of unconventional policy may differ ex-ante versus ex-post, as can the preferred exit strategy.

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  • Foerster, Andrew T., 2015. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents׳ expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 191-207.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:76:y:2015:i:c:p:191-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.10.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreea Andries, 2012. "Justification and Implementation of Exit Strategies in the Context of the Current Crisis," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 5-13, May.
    2. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2016. "The Portfolio Rebalancing Channel of Quantitative Easing," Working Papers halshs-01349870, HAL.
    3. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Sigma point filters for dynamic nonlinear regime switching models," Working Paper 2015/10, Norges Bank.
    4. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Robert Kurtzman & David Zeke, 2020. "Misallocation Costs of Digging Deeper into the Central Bank Toolkit," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 94-126, October.
    6. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2020. "A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 367-379, April.
    7. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    8. Bianca Barbaro & Patrizio Tirelli, 2023. "Forbearance vs foreclosure in a general equilibrium model," Working Papers 516, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    9. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Exit Strategies and Their Impact on the Euro Area - A Model Based View," Ruhr Economic Papers 0467, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Hollmayr, Josef & Kühl, Michael, 2019. "Learning about banks’ net worth and the slow recovery after the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Shifu Jiang, 2017. "The Ramsey Cooperative and Non-Cooperative Unconventional Monetary Policy," FIW Working Paper series 180, FIW.
    12. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2014/194, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ennis, Huberto M., 2018. "A simple general equilibrium model of large excess reserves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 50-65.
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0467 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Exit Strategies and Their Impact on the Euro Area – A Model Based View," ROME Working Papers 201401, ROME Network.
    16. Sims, Eric & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Evaluating Central Banks’ tool kit: Past, present, and future," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 135-160.
    17. Cargoët, Thibaud & Poutineau, Jean-Christophe, 2018. "Financial disruption and state dependent credit policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 249-272.

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