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Exit Strategies and Their Impact on the Euro Area – A Model Based View

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  • Ansgar Belke

Abstract

This paper comments on the pros and cons of exit strategies. The focus is on the impact on the Euro area economy of the exit from unconventional monetary policies (UMP) by the Fed, which, appears to be the first central bank to lay out an exiting path. In this context, it discusses the issue of policy coordination between central banks in the light of the substantial potential spillover effects via capital flows and exchange rate adjustments of unconventional monetary policies. The risks of a premature versus a delayed exit are assessed. In particular, the paper looks at the risk associated to spillover effects from UMP exit and the different shapes of exit paths. It also analyse exit strategies in a wider context and the associated financial stability risks, with a specific focus on the role of uncertainty. The paper presents estimates of the impact of the Fed’s exit from UMP in 2014 on the Euro area economy using new and innovative global IMF models. Finally, specific policy options to minimize exit risks are discussed and compared.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Exit Strategies and Their Impact on the Euro Area – A Model Based View," ROME Working Papers 201401, ROME Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201401
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Driven by the markets? ECB sovereign bond purchases and the securities markets programme," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 45(6), pages 357-363, November.
    2. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2013. "Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," IMF Working Papers 2013/253, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    4. Foerster, Andrew T., 2015. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents׳ expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 191-207.
    5. Mr. Derek Anderson & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/055, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Marquez, Jaime & Morse, Ari & Schlusche, Bernd, 2013. "The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and overnight interest rates: Empirical modeling of exit strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5300-5315.
    7. Belke, Ansgar, 2013. "Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment - Global Liquidity Spillovers and the Search-for-yield," Ruhr Economic Papers 429, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Anton Korinek, 2012. "Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/010, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Volz, Ulrich, 2013. "Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 31-43.
    10. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "How Much Fiscal Backing Must the ECB Have?: The Euro Area Is Not the Philippines," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 996, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0323 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 2010/034, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, February.
    14. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2014. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers – Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1101-1127, August.
    15. Bech, Morten L. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2011. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: Interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 415-431.
    16. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    17. repec:cii:cepiei:2010-4ta is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2010. "How much fiscal backing must the ECB have? The euro area is not (yet) the Philippines," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 124, pages 5-30.
    19. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Anton Korinek, 2012. "Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/10, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Reforms: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 317-342, December.
    21. Stefan Gerlach, 2013. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-34, September.
    22. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stanislav Hába, 2019. "Způsoby ukončení kvantitativního uvolňování na příkladech Japonska, Spojeného království a Spojených států amerických [Methods of Exiting Quantitative Easing on the Examples of Japan, the UK and th," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(1), pages 48-64.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    federal funds rate; exit strategies; global spillovers; international policy coordination; sudden stop;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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