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Exit Strategies and Their Impact on the Euro Area - A Model Based View

  • Ansgar Belke


This paper comments on the pros and cons of exit strategies. The focus is on the impact on the Euro area economy of the exit from unconventional monetary policies (UMP) by the Fed, which appears to be the first central bank to lay out an exiting path. In this context, it discusses the issue of policy coordination between central banks in the light of the substantial potential spillover effects via capital flows and exchange rate adjustments of unconventional monetary policies. The risks of a premature versus a delayed exit are assessed. In particular, the paper looks at the risk associated to spillover effects from UMP exit and the different shapes of exit paths. It also analyses exit strategies in a wider context and the associated financial stability risks, with a specific focus on the role of uncertainty. The paper presents estimates of the impact of the Fed’s exit from UMP in 2014 on the Euro area economy using new and innovative global IMF models. Finally, specific policy options to minimize exit risks are discussed and compared.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0467.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0467
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  1. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 343, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Bech, Morten L. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2011. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: Interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 415-431.
  3. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Volz, Ulrich, 2013. "Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 31-43.
  4. Derek Anderson & Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton & Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF; The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 13/55, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Marquez, Jaime & Morse, Ari & Schlusche, Bernd, 2013. "The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and overnight interest rates: Empirical modeling of exit strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5300-5315.
  6. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Reforms: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 317-342, December.
  7. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "How Much Fiscal Backing Must the ECB Have?: The Euro Area Is Not the Philippines," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 996, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0184 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Andrew T. Foerster, 2011. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents' expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 11-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Belke, Ansgar & Goecke, Matthias & Guenther, Martin, 2012. "Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations," Ruhr Economic Papers 327, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  12. repec:cii:cepiei:2010-4ta is not listed on IDEAS
  13. repec:cii:cepiei:2010-4q-124-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Francis Vitek, 2013. "Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy; A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," IMF Working Papers 13/253, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2010. "How much fiscal backing must the ECB have? The euro area is not (yet) the Philippines," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 124, pages 5-30.
  16. Stefan Gerlach, 2013. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-34, 09.
  17. repec:cii:cepiie:2010-4q-124-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. repec:zbw:rwirep:0323 is not listed on IDEAS
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