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Debt Deleveraging and the Exchange Rate

Author

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  • Benigno, Pierpaolo
  • Romei, Federica

Abstract

Deleveraging from high debt can provoke deep recession with significant international side effects. The exchange rate of the deleveraging country will depreciate in the short run and appreciate in the long run. The real interest rate will fall by more than in the rest of the world. Bounds and policies that constrain the adjustment can prolong and deepen the recession. Early exit strategies from accommodating monetary policy can be quite harmful, as can such other policies as keeping interest rates too high during the deleveraging period. The analysis also applies to a monetary union facing internal adjustment of current account imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Benigno, Pierpaolo & Romei, Federica, 2012. "Debt Deleveraging and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 8938, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8938
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    Cited by:

    1. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis, 2016. "Monetary Union, Even Higher Integration, or Back to National Currencies?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 62(2), pages 232-255.
    2. Romei, Federica, 2015. "Need for (the Right) Speed: the Timing and Composition of Public Debt Deleveraging," Economics Working Papers MWP2015/11, European University Institute.
    3. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B, 2016. "Exchange rate flexibility under the zero lower bound," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 52-69.
    4. Engel, Charles, 2016. "International coordination of central bank policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 13-24.
    5. Luca Fornaro, 2012. "International debt deleveraging," Economics Working Papers 1401, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2016.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:55-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pierpaolo Benigno & Gauti B. Eggertsson & Federica Romei, 2014. "Dynamic Debt Deleveraging and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 20556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2017. "Fiscal consolidation and its cross-country effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-106.
    9. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2016. "Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 42-66.
    10. Michael Curran & Adnan Velic, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Persistence and Country Characteristics," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 31, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    11. Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2015. "Do real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 5-45.
    12. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB," CEPR Discussion Papers 10905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Javier Andrés & Óscar Arce & Carlos Thomas, 2016. "When fiscal consolidation meets private deleveraging," Working Papers 1622, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    14. Luca Fornaro, 2017. "Aggregate Demand Externalities in a Global Liquidity Trap," 2017 Meeting Papers 139, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Paul Luk & David Vines, 2014. "Debt Deleveraging and the Zero Bound: Potentially Perverse Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements," Working Papers 202014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Sergio de Ferra, 2017. "External Imbalances, Gross Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Crises," 2017 Meeting Papers 726, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Thomas Philippon & Joseba Martinez, 2015. "Does a Currency Union Need a Capital Market Union?," 2015 Meeting Papers 501, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:58-66 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current Account adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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