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Sharing the burden: monetary and fiscal responses to a world liquidity trap

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  • David Cook
  • Michael B. Devereux

Abstract

With integrated trade and financial markets, a collapse in aggregate demand in a large country can cause \"natural real interest rates\" to fall below zero in all countries, giving rise to a global \"liquidity trap.\" This paper explores the optimal policy response to this type of shock, when governments cooperate on both fiscal and monetary policy. Adjusting to a large negative demand shock requires raising world aggregate demand, as well as redirecting demand towards the source (home) country. ; The key feature of demand shocks in a liquidity trap is that relative prices respond perversely. A negative shock causes an appreciation of the home terms of trade, exacerbating the slump in the home country. At the zero bound, the home country cannot counter this shock. Because of this, it may be optimal for the foreign policymaker to raise interest rates. ; Strikingly, the foreign country may choose to have a positive policy interest rate, even though its natural real interest rate is below zero. A combination of relatively tight monetary policy in the foreign country combined with substantial fiscal expansion in the home country achieves the desired mix in terms of the level and composition of world expenditure. Thus, in response to conditions generating a global liquidity trap, there is a critical mutual interaction between monetary and fiscal policy.

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  • David Cook & Michael B. Devereux, 2011. "Sharing the burden: monetary and fiscal responses to a world liquidity trap," Globalization Institute Working Papers 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:84
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    1. Monetary and fiscal policy cooperation in a liquidity trap
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-10-03 19:39:00

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    Cited by:

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    3. Robert Kollmann, 2020. "Liquidity Traps in a Monetary Union," Working Papers ECARES 2020-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Romei, Federica, 2014. "Debt deleveraging and the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-16.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Mavroeidi, Eleonora & Thwaites, Gregory & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Step away from the zero lower bound: Small open economies in a world of secular stagnation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-102.
    6. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity Traps in a World Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller, 2017. "Fixed on Flexible: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 586-632, August.
    8. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB," CEPR Discussion Papers 10905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Sanjay R. Singh & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 581-634, November.
    10. Matthieu Bussière & Jean Imbs & Robert Kollmann & Romain Rancière, 2013. "The Financial Crisis: Lessons for International Macroeconomics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 75-84, July.
    11. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2014. "Globalisation, pass-through and the optimal policy response to exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 104-128.
    12. Alex Haberis & Anna Lipińska, 2020. "A Welfare‐Based Analysis of International Monetary Policy Spillovers at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1107-1145, August.
    13. Luca Fornaro, 2018. "International Debt Deleveraging," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1394-1432.
    14. Matteo Cacciatore & Nora Traum, 2020. "Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 27652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Hettig, Thomas & Müller, Gernot J., 2018. "Fiscal policy coordination in currency unions at the effective lower bound," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 80-98.
    16. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2016. "Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 42-66.
    17. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Global Factor in Neutral Policy Rates : Some Implications for Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy, and Policy Coordination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1244, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. David Cook & James Yetman, 2014. "Currency Boards when Interest Rates are Zero," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 135-151, February.
    19. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency union with interest rate spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 375-397.
    20. Sebastian Schmidt, 2017. "Fiscal Activism and the Zero Nominal Interest Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 695-732, June.
    21. Kollmann, Robert, 2020. "Global Liquidity Traps," MPRA Paper 102324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Vadym Lepetyuk & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?," Staff Working Papers 17-21, Bank of Canada.
    23. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 21670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Richard H. Clarida, 2017. "The Global Factor in Neutral Policy Rates: Some Implications for Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy, and Policy Coordination," NBER Working Papers 23562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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