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Optimal trend inflation in an open economy

Author

Listed:
  • Cho, Daeha
  • Kim, Jung Hyun
  • Kim, Kwang Hwan
  • Kim, Suk Joon

Abstract

We study the optimal inflation target in an open economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates calibrated to the Euro area. When uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) holds, the optimal inflation target is smaller than in a closed economy. The key to this result is that real interest rates at the ZLB increase less as trade openness increases. This less pronounced increase in real interest rates in an open economy mitigates the contraction in aggregate demand, thus reducing the cost of ZLB. Additionally, the optimal inflation target in a monetary union is lower than in a flexible exchange rate regime: forming a monetary union results in a decrease in the optimal inflation rate by 0.24%, thereby increasing per-period welfare by 0.07%. When departures from UIP are significant, the optimal inflation target may be higher than in a closed economy, and the desirability of a monetary union increases further.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Daeha & Kim, Jung Hyun & Kim, Kwang Hwan & Kim, Suk Joon, 2025. "Optimal trend inflation in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0304393224001284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103675
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zero lower bound; Welfare; Optimal inflation target; Flexible exchange rate; Monetary union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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