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Optimal Trend Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Adam

    (University of Mannheim & CEPR (E-mail: adam@uni-mannheim.de))

  • Henning Weber

    (Deutsche Bundesbank (E-mail: henning.weber@bundesbank.de))

Abstract

Sticky price models featuring heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends deliver radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous- firm counterparts: (1) the optimal steady-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (2) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by aggregating a heterogenous- firm model with sticky prices in closed form. Using firm-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the U.S. economy. In the year 1977, the optimal inflation rate stood at 1.5%, but subsequently declined to around 1.0% in the year 2015. Inflation rates up to twice these numbers can be rationalized if one considers product demand elasticities more in line with the trade literature or if one considers firms that (partially) index prices to lagged inflation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Adam & Henning Weber, 2018. "Optimal Trend Inflation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:18-e-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. MIYAKAWA Daisuke & OIKAWA Koki & UEDA Kozo, 2018. "Reallocation Effects of Monetary Policy," Discussion papers 18056, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Klaus Adam & Henning Weber, 2020. "Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target from Trends in Relative Prices," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_144, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    3. Drobyshevsky, Sergey M. (Дробышевский, Сергей) & Trunin, Pavel V. (Трунин, Павел) & Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena V. (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена) & Makeeva, Natalja V. (Макеева, Наталья) & Grebenkina,, 2020. "Optimal Inflation in Russia: Theory and Practice [Оптимальная Инфляция В России: Теория И Практика]," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 8-29, August.
    4. Jordi Galí, 2018. "The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 87-112, Summer.
    5. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Galí & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2017. "The optimal inflation target and the natural rate of interest," Economics Working Papers 1591, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2019.
    6. Antoine Lepetit, 2017. "The Optimal Inflation Rate with Discount Factor Heterogeneity," Working Papers hal-01527816, HAL.
    7. Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    9. Alfredo García-Hiernaux & María T. González-Pérez & David E. Guerrero, 2020. "Eurozone prices: a tale of convergence and divergence," Working Papers 2010, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    10. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Output-Inflation Trade-offs and the Optimal Inflation Rate," Working Papers 202020, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Apaitan, Tosapol & Disyatat, Piti & Manopimoke, Pym, 2020. "Thai inflation dynamics: A view from disaggregated price data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 117-134.
    12. Lhuillier, Jean-Paul & Schoenle, Raphael, 2019. "Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2018. "Central Banking in a Changing World Summary of the 2018 BOJ-IMES Conference Organized by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies of the Bank of Japan," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    14. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Galí & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Should the ECB Adjust its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?," Working Papers 1236, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal inflation rate; sticky prices; firm heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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