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Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target From Trends in Relative Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Adam

  • Henning Weber

Abstract

Using the official micro price data underlying the U.K. consumer price index, we document a new stylized fact for the life-cycle behavior of consumer prices: relative to a narrowly defined set of competing products, the price of individual products tends to fall over the product lifetime. We show that this data feature has important implications for the optimal inflation target. Constructing a sticky-price model featuring a product life cycle and heterogeneous relative- price trends, we derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions. We show how the optimal target can be estimated from the observed trends in relative prices. For the U.K. economy, we find the optimal target to be equal to 2.6% in 2016. It has steadily increased over the period 1996 to 2016 due to changes in relative price trends over this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Adam & Henning Weber, 2020. "Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target From Trends in Relative Prices," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_144, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_144
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    Cited by:

    1. Ambrocio, Gene & Ferrero, Andrea & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2022. "What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 Economists," CEPR Discussion Papers 17289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 9/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), September.
    3. Santoro, Sergio & Weber, Henning, 2023. "Micro price heterogeneity and optimal inflation," Occasional Paper Series 322, European Central Bank.
    4. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    5. Adam, Klaus & Gautier, Erwan & Santoro, Sergio & Weber, Henning, 2022. "The case for a positive euro area inflation target: Evidence from france, germany and italy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 140-153.
    6. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Hahn, Volker & Schürle, Annika, 2025. "How does inflation affect different age groups?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    8. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benjamin Bittschi & Josef Baumgartner, 2023. "Kollektivvertragsverhandlungen in Zeiten hoher Inflation," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), pages 613-632, September.
    9. Ambrocio, Gene & Ferrero, Andrea & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2022. "What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 Economists," CEPR Discussion Papers 17289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Stephen G. Hall, 2025. "An optimal inflation rate for South Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-29, June.
    11. Germain, Antoine, 2025. "Consumer welfare beyond GDP," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2025011, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. Hiroshi Inokuma & Mitsuru Katagiri & Nao Sudo, 2024. "Innovation Choice, Product Life Cycles, and Optimal Trend Inflation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Hahn, Volker & Marenčák, Michal, 2025. "Inflation Perceptions and Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325361, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Schoenle, Raphael & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2019. "Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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