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Innovation Choice, Product Life Cycles, and Optimal Trend Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroshi Inokuma

    (Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroshi.inokuma@boj.or.jp))

  • Mitsuru Katagiri

    (Associate Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, Hosei University (E-mail: mitsuru.katagiri@hosei.ac.jp))

  • Nao Sudo

    (Deputy Director-General, Financial System and Bank Examination Department (E-mail: nao.sudou@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

This study revisits the old and ongoing challenge of identifying the optimal trend inflation rate, using a novel model that incorporates a firm's innovation choices, product life cycles, and the interplay of the two factors. We construct an endogenous growth model with sticky prices, where firms have two options: to be an innovator or to be a follower. An innovator causes creative destruction, forcing all the incumbents to exit, and becomes a monopolist in its sector. A follower enters an existing sector by offering a product that is slightly different from the incumbent's products, inducing a product life cycle within the sector. Trend inflation impacts the firm's decision regarding which of the two options to choose by changing expected markups and profits. We show that the optimal trend inflation rate could exceed zero as it mitigates potential innovator losses upon the entry of followers, which in turn depresses the incentives for firms to be followers, promoting creative destruction and faster economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Inokuma & Mitsuru Katagiri & Nao Sudo, 2024. "Innovation Choice, Product Life Cycles, and Optimal Trend Inflation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    3. Klaus Adam & Henning Weber, 2023. "Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target from Trends in Relative Prices," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 1-42, July.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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