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The Case for a Positive Euro Area Inflation Target: Evidence From France, Germany and Italy

Author

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  • Klaus Adam
  • Erwan Gautier
  • Sergio Santoro
  • Henning Weber

Abstract

Using micro price data underlying the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in France, Germany and Italy, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle and show that minimizing price and mark-up distortions in the presence of these trends requires targeting a significantly positive in flation target. Relative price trends shift the optimal infl ation target up from a level of zero percent, as suggested by the standard sticky price literature, to a range of 1.1%- 2.1% in France, 1.2%-2.0% in Germany, 0.8%-1.0% in Italy, and 1.1-1.7% in the Euro Area (three country average). Differences across countries emerge due to systematic differences in the strength of relative price trends. Other considerations not taken into account in the present paper may push up the optimal infl ation targets further. The welfare costs associated with targeting zero infl ation turn out to be substantial and range between 2.1% and 4.5% of consumption in present-value terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Adam & Erwan Gautier & Sergio Santoro & Henning Weber, 2021. "The Case for a Positive Euro Area Inflation Target: Evidence From France, Germany and Italy," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_317, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_317
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    Cited by:

    1. Consolo, Agostino & Koester, Gerrit & Nickel, Christiane & Porqueddu, Mario & Smets, Frank, 2021. "The need for an inflation buffer in the ECB’s price stability objective – the role of nominal rigidities and inflation differentials," Occasional Paper Series 279, European Central Bank.
    2. Santoro, Sergio & Weber, Henning, 2023. "Micro price heterogeneity and optimal inflation," Occasional Paper Series 322, European Central Bank.
    3. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    4. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & James Yetman & Egon Zakrajsek, 2023. "The two-regime view of inflation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 133.
    5. Strasser, Georg & Wieland, Elisabeth & Macias, Paweł & Błażejowska, Aneta & Szafranek, Karol & Wittekopf, David & Franke, Jörn & Henkel, Lukas & Osbat, Chiara, 2023. "E-commerce and price setting: evidence from Europe," Occasional Paper Series 320, European Central Bank.
    6. Fabio Braggion & Felix von Meyerinck & Nic Schaub & Michael Weber, 2024. "The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 32160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Wieland, Elisabeth & Mehrhoff, Jens, 2022. "Estimating the impact of quality adjustment on consumer price inflation," Discussion Papers 49/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Alex Oktay, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: the Swiss franc appreciation of 2015," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Meshcheryakov, A. & Sukhomlinov, A., 2024. "Considerations regarding inflation target levels," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 246-254.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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